THE UNOFFICIAL UFC 109 BETTING GUIDE
By Ben Miller
There’s a funny thing about basements: they keep moving. Be it Crockett’s gates in the 80’s, WWF’s pay-per-views in the mid-90’s or WCW’s attendance in the early 00’s, lower and lower basements kept appearing as business declined.
No rational person would argue that the UFC of the early 10’s is in a similar decline, but their first show of the decade hit a lower basement than Dana White publicly admitted it could. Now here comes their second show, which features a dual-quadragenarian main event and an undercard where two of the four fights are four-to-one mismatches. Not good.
There is more working against this card, business-wise. Super Bowl weekend is a traditional UFC weekend, but the jury is out on whether it helps the buyrate. If you eliminate the outlier of Brock Lesnar’s UFC debut in 2008, every Super Bowl weekend buyrate looks suspect. 2006: Randy vs. Chuck set a record, but that record was soundly beaten by both the April and May shows shortly thereafter. 2007: The debuts of Rampage and Cro Cop drew the second-lowest buyrate of the year for a show held in North America. 2009: St. Pierre vs. Penn, despite the attention given to it from UFC Primetime, draws 20% less than the November and December events immediately preceding it.
All of this is not to say that UFC 109 is certain to lower the basement that was established for Evans vs. Silva. Oliver Copp has reported that Couture vs. Coleman grades out as UFC’s most attractive non-championship main event in surveys and the overall quality of fighters on the undercard trumps that of last month’s show.
The fact remains that this is a show that some people will be tempted to skip, so that leads the author to just one conclusion: it’s time to wager!
For those that missed the UFC 108 betting guide, my record on recommended wagers was 2-1. If you risked $10 on each bet, you would have ended up with a $4.02 profit.
Last month I used Bookmaker.com for my lines. This month, I am switching to SBGGlobal.com (also available to U.S. bettors) because they seem to have less vig for their MMA lines.
MATT SERRA (-140) vs. FRANK TRIGG (+110)
After being ousted from UFC in 2005 after consecutive losses to Hughes and St. Pierre (and who wouldn’t have gone 0-2 there?), Trigg went on a strong run from late 2006 to early 2009 where he scored wins over Kazou Misaki and Mayhem Miller on his way to a 6-1 record. He looked bad upon his re-entry to UFC when he got knocked out by Koscheck in the first round, but my sense was that it was strategy more than skill level that fell him. He tried to stand with Koscheck, and Koscheck has more power standing. If he tries to stand with Serra I wouldn’t be surprised to see him catch another loss for the same reason.
Serra came back from his long layoff with a frustrating loss to Matt Hughes. Serra nearly won the fight in the first round after catching Hughes with a big shot. Hughes showed better recovery skills than GSP did in a similar situation against Serra, and eventually used St. Pierre’s typical lay and pray ground and pound strategy to notch a decision victory.
I bet against Serra when he faced Hughes and I am going to do so again here. I think that Trigg will get takedowns against Serra and do enough damage on the ground to win. I will note in the interest of full disclosure that PinnacleSports.com (the sharpest book out there) seems to want to take Trigg money (they have him at +130), but for once I am going to go against Henry & Co.
WAGER RECOMMENDATION: TRIGG +110
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DEMIAN MAIA (-400) vs. DAN MILLER (+300)
I’m passing. I know that’s a cop-out and when you read my reasoning you’ll probably think it’s even more of a cop-out.
I like Dan Miller to win here, but I like Chael Sonnen to beat Nate Marquardt even more. My Dan Miller selection is largely because he looked great in UFC until he ran into Sonnen. I find that Sonnen is one of the most underrated fighters in the sport and I think he will pull an upset. But I feel like if I bet Miller I’m essentially doubling my Sonnen bet (since if Sonnen is not what I think he is, then my rationale for choosing Miller falls apart), which I usually like to avoid.
As far as Maia goes, I think he remains overrated. His win over Sonnen was spectacular, but I thought that was largely because Sonnen didn’t trust his strength of controlling the fight with his wrestling. He got too worried about Maia’s submissions and ended up being caught in one of the most dazzling triangle chokes you’ll ever see. I don’t think that was the real Maia or the real Sonnen, and so I’m guessing that Maia will lose here.
WAGER RECOMMENDATION: PASS
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NATE MARQUARDT (-400) vs. CHAEL SONNEN (+300)
This feels like the perfect underdog storm.
Sonnen must have this win. He’s 32 years old. Anderson Silva has shown no interest in a rematch with Marquardt but he may be amenable to a new matchup with Sonnen later this year. That means that Sonnen has the motivation for a big payday.
Sonnen is a superb wrestler, but he tends to get caught in submissions. In his last fight, though, Sonnen looked to be caught in a guillotine choke in the first round but he survived. I thought that was a massive victory for him. That means that Sonnen will have more confidence than in the past if he finds himself in trouble on the ground.
Marquardt may not be aware how good a wrestler Sonnen is. Marquardt has displayed a well-rounded game lately and my sense is that he may have developed a sense of hubris about his own wrestling ability. The last few guys he’s faced have all been solid, but none of them can control a fight on the ground like Sonnen.
When I add this all up, it just feels like a big Sonnen upset. It appears that bettors don’t agree with me, as some books have seen Marquardt bet up as high as -420. That means if you are going to bet the underdog like I am, you may want to wait until closer to fight time because the odds could move in your favor.
WAGER RECOMMENDATION: SONNEN +300
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MIKE SWICK (-210) vs. PAULO THIAGO (+170)
Poor Mike Swick. Every time he comes one match away from getting a championship match, he loses. He did it with the TUF 1 championship at light heavyweight, with the middleweight championship and with the welterweight championship. I don’t think he can cut to lightweight so he’d better win here.
Thiago is a solid fighter, but his quality of victories is lower than Swick’s. He did get the nice knockout over Koscheck, but to my mind that was more because Koscheck kept himself too busy during that period. The Koscheck win for Thiago may end up working against him here. Swick trains at the same place Koscheck does, so there could be a revenge factor.
I do like Swick to win here but I am going to pass on the wager. Thiago is still a bit of a mystery to me so I’d rather watch and wait for his next fight. Also, reading the lines at Pinnacle and other books hasn’t given me an indication either way.
WAGER RECOMMENDATION: PASS
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RANDY COUTURE (-400) vs. MARK COLEMAN (+300)
Age in The Cage, first patented by Roddy Piper and Hulk Hogan in 1997, returns to Las Vegas. Though the medium is quite different, UFC certainly must hope that this main event will match the relative success of the legends’ blowoff at Halloween Havoc.
As far as the betting recommendation goes, this is the rare fight where I view considering the matchup unnecessary. Pinnacle loves Mark Coleman. They have Randy down to -345 while no other book that I can find will offer him below -395. When Pinnacle takes a side that strongly, I take notice.
Now, this wouldn’t be a very professional unofficial betting guide if I just told you to bet Coleman based on what Pinnacle thinks. I do have other reasons for liking The Hammer. I like his ability to work for takedowns. I like the fact that Randy seems to be in love with his boxing. I like the fact that Randy seems stretched thin by his gym and other outside interests. And I like the fact that Couture has never shown the knockout power that will be needed to put Coleman out early.
Admittedly, this is probably the weakest of my three wager recommendations. Coleman’s first fight back in UFC was dramatic but sloppy and in his second fight he won without showing a broadening of his skill set. Still, I like him to win and with Pinnacle offering the lines they are on this match, that’s enough reinforcement to get me on board.
WAGER RECOMMENDATION: COLEMAN +300
One last note before I wrap this up and ready myself for the show. I always warn people to choose the fighter before considering the line when betting. Tonight I am recommending three underdogs, two of which are going off as longshots. If you like the matchups the way I do, then I’d recommend betting them. But if you just think that one or more of these guys are just good value even though you think they’ll lose, stay away. As a professional gambler once told me, there’s no value in a ticket that doesn’t cash.
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