By: Mike Coughlin

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"UFC 46 and PRIDE 27 previews"

I wonder if the fact that I always write about the betting lines is an indoctrination of me. Maybe I've got a problem. (note: if you DO have a gambling problem, despite how stupid I am, it's not funny and you may as well get help now before you lose your house and your entire life) I've decided to once again take a look at the betting lines for the "big" shows this weekend. UFC 46 is actually a very star studded show with a very marquee matchup and a solid undercard. Pride looks like, well, an average UFC show. It's like we're in some sort of bizzarro world. Maybe Bryan's Friend Vince will no longer be a lackey, and instead it'll be VINCE'S FRIEND BRYAN! (I can't help it, I'm more obsessed with Bryan's lackey than Bryan probably is!) Now then, onto the fun.

A quick rundown of how betting works: if a fighter is listed as "+300" that means he's the underdog. If you bet $100, you'll win $300 for a total of $400 The higher the number, the more the underdog. Likewise, the lower the number, the more the favorite.

UFC 46:

Randy Couture (-215) VS Vitor Belfort (+175)

Don't bet on this one, it's really just an insane bet either way. On paper, Belfort should win. He's a tremendous striker, has a great chin, and is a BJJ black belt. Couture's one weakness has always been submissions, and if Belfort focused on that area of his game, he should have the advantage there. But common, who's gonna bet against Randy F'N Couture! I hate guys like him, because they never have any true strength that you can point to and say, "AH HA! That's why he's so great!" like Nog with his guard and CroCop and his standup skills. But Couture just keeps on winning. He's the ultimate "cerebral assassin", except he's been successful through his skill, not through his wife. The one wild card, besides the always present "Randy is old and has to break down some day", is that Vitor's sister is still missing. This will either lead to Belfort, understandably, not being mentally focused on the fight, or will motivate him like a man possessed. Sadly, Belfort's biggest weakness has always been mental, as he just shuts down at times. Belfort can flurry, but Couture is who he is. Don't bet on this one, it's too close.

Matt Hughes (-325) VS BJ Penn (+250)

Whatever. Go ahead and bet against Matt Hughes, I dare ya. If BJ Penn can get on his back, and he'll be on his back no matter what, in the middle of the cage, he has a chance to try for multiple submissions until Hughes muscles him into the cage. Once there, it's all over for Penn. However, the one silver lining for Penn is that Hughes can be caught in subs. The downside is that usually he just slams you on your head when that happens. The odds are enough in Penn's favor that it's probably worth it to put a few bucks on him, but let's be real: Matt Hughes isn't a fighter, he's a force of nature.

Frank Mir (-188) VS Wes Sims (+148)

Mir's more skilled than Sims, but Sims is just a big guy who's strong and somewhat agile. In their last fight, which ended in a DQ, Mir was just owning Sims left and right, and it seemed that on the ground Sims has no clue at all. The odds don't favor either guy enough to be putting any bets down. Mir should win, but there's something a big strong guy that can't be discounted. Should be interesting to note that Mir keeps "magically" getting bigger every month and that could lead him to gas. But I don't think this fight is going the distance.

Pride 27:

Mirko CroCop (-350) VS Ron Waterman (+275)

CroCop is world class, Waterman is not. CroCop can KO any fighter on earth. Waterman got knocked out by a Andre Roberts, who can now be seen advertising for local Iowa casino's. (which is surreal) However, Waterman does have a good takedown, and CroCop's defense isn't nearly as great as people think. Nog, who has a below average takedown, took him down. Sakuraba, who was outweighed by 30-40 lbs, took him down. The problem is that I don't know what Waterman can do to finish CroCop on the ground. Mirko, despite the hype, doesn't have much on the ground. Turtling up inside of Nog's guard does not constitute a ton of skill. Once Nog was on top of CroCop he was schooling him like the novice grappler that Mirko really is. But, Waterman isn't exactly a world class BJJ guy, so that shouldn't be a problem. Don't bet, it's just not worth it. CroCop will probably KO him in the first round.

Igor Vovchanchyn (-260) VS Dan Bobish (+200)

This isn't a bad bet actually. Igor can hit hard, but he hasn't been a great fighter in a long time. Bobish is a freaking monster and could outmuscle Igor. He looked bad against Goodridge, but also caught a finger in the eye, and no man can fight half blind. He's probably too much of an underdog, and there's a chance at money being made here. But it's not something I feel completely comfortable advocating either. Probably the best bet of the weekend though.

Mark Kerr (-500) VS Yamamoto (+300)

I don't trust Kerr AT ALL. He's been a mess for years, and that kind of stuff can be so tough to overcome. In his prime, Kerr would eat Yamamoto for breakfast. Still, don't bet on this fight either. It's not that I don't think Kerr can be beaten, I think he can easily and that he's not that great of a fighter anymore, it's just that I can't think of anyway that Yamamoto can finish him, and Kerr is a guy you have to finish, because his style of lay and pray is very condusive towards getting decision wins.

Ninja Rua (-500) VS Otsuka (+300)

It looks like a big mismatch, but Otsuka is a lot tougher than most give him credit for. If Ninja underestimates him and doesn't train hard, thinking that Otsuka is a joke, he could be in for a rough night. Wanderlei Silva took Otsuka lightly at Pride 18, and Otsuka gave him a much tougher fight than anyone thought he would. I think the odds are far enough in Otsuka's favor that $25 on him isn't stupid or anything, but he probably won't win. Ninja probably TKO's him in the 2nd round.

And there ya have it. On the biggest weekend of the year for gambling, I don't even talk about the big game! I'm telling ya, MMA is addicting! OK ok, I think the Panthers are good bet, but New England should win, so who knows. Commercials should be great though!

All odds current as of 01/29/04 from thegreek.com Don't bet unless it's for fun. If you wouldn't feel comfortable spending the money on a video game or good book, then don't spend it here.

-Mike Coughlin

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