“The show (and fighter) nobody care about”

Tuesday, the first of two UFC events in the span of 5 days takes place as the promotion presents Fight Night 10, from the Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino, live from Hollywood, Florida on Spike TV. The main event features ultra talented lightweight, Spencer Fisher, looking not only to avenge a previous loss to his opponent, Canadian striker Sam Stout, but also get back on the winning track. Last January, Fisher was on the undercard of the show that featured Rashad Evans delivering his highlight reel high kick to Sean Salmon. That night, Fisher lost to the UFC’s current lightweight title challenger, Hermes Franca by 2nd round knock out. Just six months later, the over-saturation of UFC product has reached a point where Fisher can go from opening match loser to headliner, having done nothing in that time to earn the honor.

I see no reason why any casual fan will care about this show, and suspect that it could very well do the lowest rating in Fight Night history. Were that to happen, it would hardly be an indication the UFC is declining in popularity, but that watching live mixed martial arts action is no longer unique. With EXC, Strikerforce, bodogFIGHT, WEC, IFL, UFC, K1, Art of War, and a few others I’m surely forgetting, all on either free TV or PPV (many of them producing weekly shows), there’s a veritable MMA smorgasbord for fans. Unless the population decides to support the sport in a way that would make even the NFL green with envy, the audience will naturally begin to distiguish between big fights and non-big fights. Spencer Fisher taking on Sam Stout, not for a title, not for a title shot, but just because they’re available to fight, is not a big fight.

In many respects it’s a shame people might miss this fight. When these two first fought, Fisher came in on short notice, dropping 20 pounds to make the lightweight limit of 155 pounds in a few days. His reward for exhausting his body was that he got to fight a Canadian who can strike with the best of them. When you’re someone like Fisher, who likes to stay active and throw with anyone willing, that isn’t necessarily the best prize. The man now training with Pat Miletich in Iowa didn’t mind though, went out there with the attitude that he had nothing to lose, and for three rounds both men traded bombs in an exciting battle. In the end, Fisher ended up losing a split decision.

For his part, Stout is making a return to the famed Octagon, having been away for almost exactly a year. June 24th, 2006, Stout lost to Kenny Florian in the main-event of the Ultimate Fighter 3 finals. Just as would happen with Fisher and Franca – where the loser watched the winner go on to challenge for the shiniest jewel in the division – after beating Stout, Florian went on to fight Sean Sherk for the then vacant UFC lightweight championship. Since losing to Florian, Stout traveled north of the border, returning to the TKO promotion that had been his home the vast majority of his career. While there, Stout notched two victories on his belt, avenging the first loss of his career when he tapped out Jay Estrada and finishing Brazilian Fabio Holanda.

As for the fight itself, I expect it to deliver on the promise of an all-out stand-up war. The edge standing lends itself to Stout, while Fisher does enjoy an advantage on the ground, but neither man is a slouch in any aspect of the game. In the modern era of MMA, everyone is good at everything, we just now find guys slightly better at one aspect than another. With so many fighters being able to strike and grapple at an acceptable level, the key to victory often lies in the ability to dictate where the fight takes place. Yet, even there it’s difficult to find a clear-cut advantage. Fisher has publicly admitted that wrestling is his biggest weakness, and on the other hand, though Stout has developed a decent sprawl, Florian was able to get him down without much difficulty. Still, regularly training with someone like Matt Hughes can only help Fisher’s wrestling and I believe he’ll have the tools to take this to the mat.

There is a wild card: Fisher was knocked silly by Franca, the first time in his career he’d ever been finished, let alone TKO’d. For a fighter like Fisher, who likes to not just throw, but launch like a rocket into space, caution to the wind, the realization that you’re not invincible can sometimes have an adverse effect on your aggressiveness. Fisher may have flashbacks to the looping right hand that crushed him in his last fight and that could cause him to fight a more conservative fight than normal. He may still win, but his aggressiveness could – could – be on vacation for a bit. When it’s all said and done, I expect Fisher to avenge his loss. I believe he’s better standing than Stout is on the ground, and for that reason I pick him to win.

Jon Fitch is one man for whom the over-saturation of product is a welcome blessing. Widely regarded as one of the best welterweights on earth, Fitch has been relegated to non-broadcast status throughout his UFC tenure. He’s openly complained about being placed in prelim bouts, feeling that he’s done enough to warrant inclusion on the main card. A 13-2 record, featuring wins over Shonie Carter, Brock Larson, Thiago Alves, Josh Burkman, Kuniyoshi Hironaka, and Jeff Joslin indicates he has a legit gripe. While his teammate, Josh Koscheck has gotten much of the attention, Fitch might actually be the best 170 pound fighter at the American Kickboxing Academy. The former Purdue University Wrestling Team Captain may be the best fighter no one knows.

In an odd piece of history, quite fitting given his track record of being passed over, Fitch was originally selected to be an inaugural cast member on The Ultimate Fighter. However, his bags already having boarded the plane, Fitch received a last minute phone call informing him that the producers had decided to go in a different direction. To this day, Fitch says he still doesn’t know what happened.

Fitch will be taking on Roan Carneiro. The Brazilian Top Team grappler made his UFC debut in April, netting a unanimous decision over TUF 4 star Rich Clementi. Counting newly signed UFC heavyweight, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira amongst his heroes, Carneiro brings a solid submission game to the table, one he will likely find himself needing on Tuesday. As a member of the famed BTT, there’s no doubt Carneiro has been schooled by some of the best in the sport, but his record against top competition is unconvincing. He’s lost to both Ryo Chonan and Anderson Silva, but to his credit owns a win over Matt Horwich. Now fighting at men more his own size, Carneiro will look to get a signature victory.

The aforementioned ability to control a fight’s location is one of Fitch’s best tools. He’s shown solid striking, a tight submission defense, and good ground and pound in his career, yet, if at any time he feels uncomfortable, Fitch can use his excellent wrestling to switch things up and force a change of pace. When the ring announcer reads the winner’s name, I think that skill will have played the biggest role in the fight’s outcome, and for that reason I’m picking Jon Fitch to win by unanimous decision. Whether such a win cements his right to forever fight on the main broadcast is to be seen, but all those tuning in may end up having viewed the sport’s future welterweight champion.

A solid main-event that is more likely than not to produce fireworks, a future star at welterweight, plus an undercard with some talented – just unknown – fighters (Thiago Tavares and Jason Black to name two), add it all together and Fight Night 10 looks to be a good show. I suspect that those who turn to Spike TV on Tuesday night will be entertained – it’s just too bad that they will be few and far between.

Mike Coughlin hosts Five Star Radio, a weekly look at the world of MMA found exclusively at f4wonline.com. {plug}