“The UFC’s Next Big Thing”

Though his chest is currently adorned with a single-edged knife, had Brock Lesnar known what was ahead, a sword with a double-edge may have been more apropos. From the beginning, it was clear that booking Lesnar was going to be an incredibly challenging task for the Ultimate Fighting Championship. In Lesnar, the promotion has one of mixed martial art’s most unique cases. He only has one fight to his credit, a June 2, 2007 first-round mauling of Judo silver medalist, Min Soo Kim, that was the main-event of K-1 HERO*S - Dynamite!! USA show. This Saturday, Lesnar looks to also be at the top draw of what is traditionally one of the UFC’s biggest events, its Superbowl weekend show. Off the top of my head, I cannot think of any North American MMArtist that headlined a PPV in their professional debut, nor can I think of one that is basically doing the same in their second go around (putting aside the early UFC events).

Just as Japan first gave MMA a mainstream home, so, too does that nation provide different roadmaps for how to handle Lesnar’s situation. Akebono, a living legend in the country due to his years of Sumo success, made his MMA debut in the main-event of the 2004 New Year’s Eve show, losing by first round submission to another fighting legend, Royce Gracie. One year prior, Akebono made his kickboxing debut, losing by knock out in the first round to Bob Sapp. In both fights, the casual fan interest was through the roof, with the ratings for his bout against Sapp reaching almost unthinkable highs. Yet, in his first 13 fights, Akebono had one win, a victory over K-1 referee Nobuaki Kakuda (for however legitimate that was and for whatever worth it has). The UFC is probably hoping Lesnar doesn’t go 1-12.

Though his current record is 7-5-1, Judoka Hidehiko Yoshida’s career is somewhat preferable to Akebono’s. Having won a gold medal in the 1992 Olympics, Yoshida was a national hero when he stepped into the world of combat sports. His August 2002 debut was not without controversy. On the same incredible card that saw Kazushi Sakuraba take on Mirko CroCop and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira cause the world to think he was inhuman as he tapped out Sapp, Yoshida competed in what was essentially a submission-grappling match with Royce Gracie. To the surprise of MMA fans that had grown up watching Gracie and for whom exposure to high-level Judo was little to none, Yoshida dominated Gracie. Eventually, Yoshida cinched what looked like a tight Gi choke. Believing Royce had gone limp, and knowing that Gracie family’s legacy of refusing to tap no matter the circumstance, the referee waived off the contest and declared Yoshida the winner. Royce immediately jumped to his feet, protested the stoppage, and insisted that he was never out. Replays seemed to confirm Gracie’s assertion but it didn’t matter; to the Japanese audience, Yoshida had won.

Yoshida followed this up with his first full-fledged MMA fight, taking on a man that personified the phrase, tough as nails: Don Frye. Again to the surprise of long-time MMA fans Yoshida dominated. He took Frye down and literally broke the American’s arm with an armbar. Sadly, controversy also followed this fight. Some MMA fans, those always looking for a conspiracy, insisted that Frye had been paid to take a dive. It was a bogus claim, an opinion held only be a select few stupid enough to deny the talents of a world-class athlete. Frye’s arm was broken, he had the medical bills to prove it, and he always insisted the fight was a work (and Frye never denied the difference between his worked and shoot fights).

Yoshida then fought pro-wrestler, and accomplished MMArtist, Kiyoshi Tamura. Again, Yoshida took the fight to the ground and secured a submission with total ease. And, again, a loud, ignorant minority of fans cried work, refusing to believe Yoshida could be that good. It wasn’t until Yoshida fought, and lost by close decision, Wanderlei Silva that the bellowing few, never believing that Silva was anything less than 100% legit and knowing he’d never carry an opponent, saw fit to shut their mouths.

With years of weekly television exposure wrestling for World Wrestling Entertainment in front of millions, Lesnar entered MMA more famous than all but a handful of fighters. Unlike the Sumo star, Lesnar is expected to, and there is every indication that he should, compete. With his legitimate wrestling pedigree serving as a base, along with his ridiculous physical gifts, the man once deemed “The Next Big Thing” in WWE might just be that in MMA as well. In that respect, Lesnar is much more like Yoshida than Akebono in that he’s famous but also possesses a set of skills that translate to MMA. And like Yoshida, Lesnar will carry the baggage of detractors doubting the legitimacy of whatever he accomplishes. For every win the Minnesotan nets, you can bet there will be those claiming it was all a work.

Lesnar’s amateur wrestling background is one that has served many of today’s biggest stars very well. Look no further than current UFC fighter – and, like Lesnar, former NCAA division one wrestling champion – Josh Koscheck. He went from pure wrestler to top-flight welterweight in around three years. Though Koscheck’s first professional fight was in January of 2004, he has readily admitted that he didn’t really train all facets of MMA until after his appearance on the first season of The Ultimate Fighter. Using that time frame, Koscheck became an elite fighter in essentially two years, or roughly the exact same amount of time Lesnar has been training for the sport. And Koscheck did it as a welterweight, a weight-class that demands more in terms of overall skill than the heavyweights.

Still, denying that Lesnar has potential is a game played by few (perhaps that same chattering class that once doubted Yoshida). What the UFC must deal with is the unenviable task of balancing Lesnar’s potential to be a great fighter with his current guarantee to be a great box office draw.

(Let us all pause and shed a tear for Zuffa. Knowing you’re going to make millions of dollars off a fighter and figuring out the best way to do so is a horrible affair to endure.)

There never was a right or a wrong way to book Lesnar. It did seem that there were two schools of thought though: The Economists and The Sports Fan.

The Economists’ thought was to throw him in with the very best immediately. If Lesnar lost, it wasn’t a big deal because it could be sold to the general public that it was a valuable learning experience. Furthermore, despite being the MMA equivalent of a #1 overall draft pick, there is no guarantee that Lesnar would find success. Putting him in with someone like Tim Sylvia made certain that the UFC got at least some value out of Lesnar. And, should Lesnar win a fight of such magnitude, then he’d instantly become credible to both MMA and pro wrestling fans, perhaps even making him the sport’s biggest star, period.

The Sports Fan believed Lesnar should be groomed the way any other fighter would, having him take on opponents of a similar experience level and gradually working his way up the ladder. Almost completely unknown to anyone but the most hardcore of fight fans is a great heavyweight wrestler from Arizona named Cain Velasquez. Because he’s anonymous, Velazquez has been able to fight the likes of Jesse Fujarczyk and Jeremiah Constant (no, you’re not supposed to know who they are, don’t worry), enabling him to slowly develop and hone his stills. This is the path The Sports Fan would like to see Lesnar walk.

Neither side is completely wrong nor completely right. It’s tough to justify the likely big money Lesnar is getting by having him fight the Fujarczyk’s of the world for a year or two. The novelty of watching Lesnar fight MMA will quickly wear off and your average PPV buyer may not be sympathetic to the idea that Lesnar need be brought along slowly. Plus, there is always the added danger – and after a year of upsets in 2007, this should be more clear than ever before – that Lesnar might lose to a relatively sub-par heavyweight. Should Lesnar step in with someone like Eddie Sanchez and lose, no good could come of it. Sanchez isn’t going to be a top fighter nor a top draw, so he will have gained nothing and Lesnar will have been beaten by someone seen as a non-contender.

Putting Lesnar in with Sylvia or Nogueira may minimize the damage of a loss to a degree, because both men have established themselves as top fighters and a high profile win over Lesnar will raise their future stock. But for every loss Lesnar suffers, his standing decreases. Lesnar’s deal is not for one fight and you can imagine the UFC doesn’t want to kill the potential golden goose after just one egg. Should he fight nothing but elite talent, he may find himself starting his UFC career with a series of losses, leaving the indelible impression in casual fan’s minds that he’s just not that good.

Thus, a compromise of sorts has been reached and Lesnar will face Frank Mir. Mir is a former UFC Heavyweight Champion who was once groomed as the company’s heavyweight poster boy until a motorcycle accident forced him from the sport for a year and a half. Despite a series of lackluster performances, Mir still retains a great deal of his popularity and is a legitimate star to UFC fans. In fact, with the departure of Randy Couture, Mir likely has as much fame as any current heavyweight fighter in the company. At the same time – a first round submission over Antoni Hardonk notwithstanding – Mir isn’t the same fighter that once snapped Sylvia’s arm in two. The aforementioned motorcycle accident undoubtedly took a toll on Mir mentally, but he’s also come into fights fat and out of shape. He’s been lazy in his training, choosing to not do so full time, and almost uninterested in the midst of his fights. He’s lost twice as many fights in his last four bouts than he did in his first nine.

Mir is almost the perfect foe for Lesnar. He isn’t a top-flight fighter, but he has the name value of one. He’s someone that is still dangerous enough that Lesnar has to take him seriously, but not so dangerous that Lesnar doesn’t have a solid chance to win. A victory over Mir won’t guarantee that Lesnar one day hugs a UFC title. A loss won’t prematurely end his career and it may actually simultaneously prove enough to springboard Mir into contendership. Finally, Mir should prove a decent barometer of where Lesnar’s development stands. If Lesnar is easily tapped by Mir, he would surely have a difficult time with a division featuring submission artists like Gabriel Gonzaga, Fabrico Werdum, and Nogueira. However, if Brock can avoid what Mir offers, all but the elite grapplers are going to be nervous because with a takedown that should rank amongst the best, if you can’t beat Lesnar on the ground, he’s going to be difficult to beat period. If that proves true, “The Next Big Thing” may have a different title: UFC Heavyweight Champion.

Mike Coughlin is the host of Five Star Radio, found at figurefouronline.com. This week’s show is free and one and all are encouraged to give it a listen as Mike will be breaking down UFC 81 and covering all the other news from the world of MMA. {plug}