| Mike Coughlin's July MMA rankings |
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“The Half-Guarded Truth” By: Mike Coughlin This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it For the week of 06/27/08 “July MMA Rankings” It’s been a month since the Five Star Radio/Half-Guarded Truth rankings “officially” debuted so that means it’s time to do an update! Tons of things happened since last we spoke on these matters: Gilbert Melendez lost, the DREAM lightweight grand prix took place, Rampage Jackson was felled, and Fedor attempted to commit murder on live PPV. One basic rule I try to which I try to adhere with rankings is the following: if Fighter A beats Fighter B, Fighter A is ranked higher than Fighter B. That’s simple enough. That doesn’t necessarily mean I think Fighter A is BETTER than Fighter B, but if fights are to mean anything, then a win means you’re “ranked better” than the guy you beat. How can I watch Anderson Silva tap out Dan Henderson then rank Henderson above Silva? Two guys met, they fought, one guy won, he’s better. That’s the entire point of a fight. If they fight again, that doesn’t mean I’ll break down a fight that way, but for rankings purposes, a win is a win is a win. Until either 1) Fighter A loses or 2) something extraordinary occurs that can justify Fighter B leaping over Fighter A, Fighter A should be ranked above Fighter B. In general, once a fighter is slotted at #1, he does not lose that spot until he loses. This is unique to the top slot, as you can lose a #7 ranking like a fat man loses an M&M in a couch cushion. There are a few exceptions though, typically when I’m ranking someone #1 only by default. For example, when Nick Diaz beat Takanori Gomi, but then tested positive for pot, I couldn’t really rank Nick ahead of Gomi because he was on suspension and technically cheated to win, but I also thought it was weird for Gomi to be ranked #1 when the entire world watched him tap out in his last fight. I mean, how can you be the best fighter in your division when you lost your last fight? For that reason, the #1 ranked lightweight has always been up in the air. But, BJ Penn’s current ranking feels “solid” enough to be that I think the, “#1 can’t be unseated until he loses” rule will apply. It’s kind of the old Ric Flair, “To be the man, you’ve got to beat the man” philosophy. And, as you’ll see this month, I really don’t like giving strict credit for winning/losing a fight in the midst of a one night tournament. Now then, all the explanations are out of the way, onto the fun: HEAVYWEIGHT 1) Fedor Emelianenko 2) Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira 3) Randy Couture 4) Josh Barnett 5) Andrei Arlovski 6) Tim Sylvia 7) Fabricio Werdum 8 ) Gabriel Gonzaga 9) Heath Herring 10) Cain Velasquez CHANGES: Arlovski moves to #5 as Sylvia drops to #6. Arlovski earns the right to jump ahead of Sylvia based on his KO of Ben Rothwell. Sylvia drops one, but only one, spot because Fedor murdered him and I’m not going to penalize a guy too much for losing to Fedor. Fedor solidifies his #1 ranking and I hope his destruction of Big Tim quiets all critics for a while. I have also slotted Cain Velasquez at #10. I’ve found ranking someone at 10 for the heavyweights really difficult. There are a few names that all come to mind, but none really stand out as THAT worthy. You have Aleksander Emelianenko, Sergei Kharitonov, Mirko CroCop, Ben Rothwell, Roy Nelson, Alistair Overeem and Cheick Kongo. Problem is, I don’t think any of those fighters have done anything extraordinary lately. CroCop had the two ridiculously bad losses and then beats a complete scrub – hardly top 10 material. Kharitonov looks spotty at times. He loses to Aleks and Alistair after beating Werdum. He avenged the Alistair win, but that’s hardly awe inspiring. Rothwell had a nice streak over mid-level opponents, but was exposed against Arlovski. Ben’s good, but not great. Aleks really only has the one big win over Kharitonov to his credit. He has had good performances in losses, most notably against Josh Barnett, but most of this other wins are over guys that aren’t near the top 10. Kongo really was just the CroCop win – and while that got him into the top 10, he then lost to Herring (which got Herring into the top 10). Nelson has a lot of talent, but he lost to Rothwell just last year and still needs that one BIG win, in my opinion. That brings us to Cain. He’s only 4-0 and has only faced one opponent of note: Jake O’Brien. So, why put him in the top 10? Two reasons: O’Brien has faced two other fighters in the top ten, Herring and Arlovski. He beat Herring and lost in the second round to Arlovski. So, he’s somewhat of a decent measuring stick. Cain ran through O’Brien. It didn’t look competitive because it wasn’t. It’s a bit of MMAth, I admit. Reason two: I like to use the 10th position to often spotlight fighters. Cain deserves the attention he’s been getting and since no one else has really done anything of note lately (with Nelson coming the closest), I give Cain the nod. LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT 1) Forrest Griffin 2) Quinton “Rampage” Jackson 3) Chuck Liddell 4) Mauricio “Shogun” Rua 5) Lyoto Machida 6) Wanderlei Silva 7) Keith Jardine 8 ) Rameau Sokoudjou 9) Antonio Rogerio Nogueira 10) Rashad Evans CHANGES: The biggest change in all of the rankings takes place at light heavyweight. Forrest Griffin defeats Quinton Jackson at UFC 86 and finds himself the number one 205 lb fighter on the planet. Coming off the first season of The Ultimate Fighter, I thought Forrest would be a good fighter, but not this. He seemed like the kind of guy that would always put up a decent fight, but one that would be totally exposed against top-level talent. Oh how he has proven otherwise. It’s surreal, it’s improbable, but Griffin is the man! Jackson only drops one slot, to #2. He lost, but it was close, and I don’t think Liddell should be ranked ahead of Rampage just yet. I also decided to drop Ricardo Arona from the top 10. He hasn’t fought in forever. Even if he’d fought at heavyweight or something, I’d keep his ranking, but he’s closing in on 16 months without ANY kind of fight. If there were special circumstances keeping him from fighting (ala Randy Couture) that would be one thing, but he’s just taking time away. Good for him, good for his health, bad for his ranking (and I know how Ricardo values his 5SR~!/Half-Guarded Truth ranking). Nogueira moves up to #9 and I enter Rashad Evans at #10. Undefeated in his career, with a draw against Tito Ortiz and an “amateur” win over Keith Jardine on The Ultimate Fighter (though that fight was at heavyweight and under unique circumstances, so I don’t weigh it as much as normal). Couple all that with Evans solid wins over Stephan Bonnar and Jason Lambert and I think he’s earned a #10 ranking. It IS tenuous though and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Thiago Silva or the very fast rising Luiz Cane occupy this slot soon enough. MIDDLEWEIGHT 1) Anderson Silva 2) Dan Henderson 3) Paulo Filho 4) Matt Lindland 5) Robbie Lawler 6) Yushin Okami 7) Rich Franklin 8 ) Thales Leites 9) Nathan Marquardt 10) Frank Trigg CHANGES: No changes. Anderson Silva is still the man (or, “He’s practically f’n Superman.”). I was asked last month why I rank Okami ahead of Franklin, given that Rich defeated the Japanese star last year. First, that fight was very close. Second, Franklin lost to Anderson Silva and then beat Travis Lutter since then. Okami beat Jason MacDonald and Evan Tanner and I think those two wins are JUST enough to rank Okami ahead of Rich. This may all be moot as Franklin’s next fight is at 205 lbs. If it becomes official that Franklin is done at 185, I’ll remove him from these rankings. Until then, Franklin/Okami is one of those 6/7, 7/6 deals. WELTERWEIGHT 1) Georges St. Pierre 2) Jon Fitch 3) Jake Shields 4) Josh Koscheck 5) Thiago Alves 6) Matt Hughes 7) Diego Sanchez 8 ) Carlos Condit 9) Karo Parisyan 10) Matt Serra CHANGES: Only change was Shields moving up from #4 to #3 and Koscheck moving down from #3 to #4. LIGHTWEIGHT 1) BJ Penn 2) Takanori Gomi 3) Eddie Alvarez 4) Shinya Aoki 5) Joachim Hansen 6) Tatsuya Kawajiri 7) Gesius “JZ” Calvancanti 8 ) Vitor “Shaolin” Riberio 9) Caol Uno 10) Tyson Griffin CHANGES: That stupid DREAM tournament. That’s all I can say. I hate it and I hate using tournament wins when factoring rankings, especially 2nd fight of the night wins. So much has happened in the LW division in the past month and as I noted before, this is the one division where your ranking is anything but stable. First things first: BJ Penn is still #1. I’ve moved Gomi to 2 if for no other reason that he’s great and hasn’t lost recently. Eddie Alvarez knocks out Kawajiri in the first round of their fight and continues his breakout 2008 by moving into the 3rd slot. Aoki drops from 2 to 4, but could’ve dropped further. He put on a clinic against Caol Uno, pulling out one submission after another in a grappling display that need be seen to be believed. BUT, he then got finished in the first round by Joachim Hansen, who returns to the top 10 with a bang. This is where things get tough. Hansen beat Aoki. Logically, he’s then better than Shinya and deserves a higher ranking. However, I’m slightly discounting Hansen’s win because it was the 2nd fight of the night for both men. To me, that win didn’t prove that Hansen was better than Aoki. It proved that a Hansen that had fought the Black Mamba already was better than an Aoki that had fought Uno. It’s a negligible difference and this should really be read as 4/5 and 5/4. Kawajiri drops from 5 to 6 based on losing to Alvarez. Gesius drops just because so many other guys jumped ahead of him. His going from 3 to 7 is just further proof of how unstable LW rankings are. Same goes for Shaolin’s drop. Uno loses a few spots obviously because he lost to Aoki. He was also a top 10 fighter mostly based on one win anyways. Then there’s a new addition: Tyson Griffin. I’ve removed Sean Sherk and Gilbert Melendez. Melendez is easy enough to justify: he lost to Josh Thomson. I LOVE Thomson as a fighter, that’s no secret, but I think Griffin has done more to earn the #10 ranking. Sherk, likewise, is a great fighter, but Griffin’s 4-fight win steak is really incredible when you consider how much talent there is at 155. Consecutive wins over Clay Guida, Thiago Tavarez, Gleison Tibau, and Marcus Aurelio gets him the #10 position. Griffin is on a roll and may soon challenge for the UFC lightweight championship – he’s that damn good. Fighters to look for in this division making a run at the top 10: Kenny Florian, Roger Huerta, Mitsuhiro Ishida, Sean Sherk, Josh Thomson, Gilbert Melendez, and maybe, just maybe, Matt Wiman, Nick Diaz, KJ Noons. POUND FOR POUND General rule: success in a higher weight class counts for a lot in my book (or, guys like Machida who are pretty small for their class and could easily fight at a lower weight). Also, normal rules about “To be the man you’ve gotta beat the man” do not apply. 1) BJ Penn 2) Anderson Silva 3) KID Yamamoto 4) Fedor Emelianenko 5) Urijah Faber 6) Miguel Torres 7) Shinya Aoki 8 ) Lyoto Machida 9) Dan Henderson 10) Diego Sanchez CHANGES: Fedor moves into my top 10 P4P. I normally hate ranking heavyweights in the pound for pound category because it kind of goes against the spirit of the rankings. However, Sylvia had probably a 40+ lb weight advantage over Fedor and the Russian still beat the crap out of Big Tim in 30 seconds. That’s awesome. Anderson Silva moves to #2 as KID Yamamoto drops to #3. By definition, this is the most fluid list of them all and Silva’s recent annihilation of 205 lb James Irvin means more today than KID’s amazing 155 lb wins from a while back. (Yes, KID, the guy fighting at 135 lbs now, was incredible two weight classes up – he’s that damn good.) Gilbert Melendez also drops out of this list due to losing to Thomson. Mike Coughlin is the host of Five Star Radio, found right here at the new f4wonline.com. A weekly look at all things MMA, 5SR~! is your one-stop for non-stop MMA. He likes that Matt Lindland nicknamed himself “The Law” because the legal process is often very long, drawn out, boring, and unsatisfying when it concludes. {plug} |
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