First, results from today's show at Sumo Hall:
Yoshi-Hashi & Takashi Iizuka b Kushida & Captain New Japan when Yoshi-Hashi pinned Captain
A block: Davey Boy Smith Jr. (5-3) b Prince Devitt (4-4) with the Bulldog power bomb
B block: Karl Anderson (5-3) b Yujiro Takahashi (4-4) with the Gun stun
A block: Lance Archer (3-5) b Satoshi Kojima (3-5) with the blackout
B block: Shelton Benjamin (4-4) b Toru Yano (3-5) with the ankle lock
A block: Togi Makabe (5-3) b Tomohiro Ishii (3-6) with the King Koing kneedrop
B block: Minoru Suzuki (5-3) b Kota Ibushi (4-5) with the Gotch piledriver
B block: Tetsuya Naito (4-4) b Shinsuke Naamura (5-3) with the Stardust press
A block: Hiroshi Tanahashi (4-3-1) drew Kazuchika Okada (4-3-1) over 30:00
Tonight's card (2 a.m. Eastern, 11 p.m Pacific) and how it stands:
Toru Yano vs. Minoru Suzuki - if Suzuki wins, he's guaranteed a tie for first in the B block
Shelton Benjamin vs. Shinsuke Nakamura - If Nakamura wins, he's guaranteed a tie for first in the B block
Tetsuya Naito vs. Karl Anderson - If Anderson wins, he's guaranted a tie for first in the B block
Yuji Nagata vs Yujiro Takahashi - The winner would be in a multiple person tie for first only if Yano, Benjamin and Naito all win.
In the head-to-head, based on a tie, Suzuki beat Nakamura earlier, Anderson beat Nakamura earlier and Suzuki beat Anderson. Nakamura only advances if he wins and the other two lose. If Suzuki wins over Yano, he's in the championship match. Anderson will advance if he beats Naito and Suzuki loses to Yano.
Lance Archer vs. Davey Boy Smith Jr.
Kazuchika Okada vs. Satoshi Kojima
Togi Makabe vs. Prince Devitt
Hiroshi Tanahashi vs. Katsuyori Shibata
Smith Jr. would be guaranteed a tie with a win, but I don't think he's getting it.
Okada would be 5-3-1 with a win
Makabe is guaranteed a tie with a win
Shibata is guaranteed a tie with a win,
If Archer, Devitt and Tanahashi all win, Tanahashi or Okada could win the block. But I expect both to win and then you've a tie with both. So more likely a guy will be 6-3 to win.
Smith Jr. beat Makabe. Shibata beat Smith Jr. Shibata also beat Makabe. So if Makabe beats Tanahashi, he's in the finals. If Smith Jr. wins and Tanahashi beats Shibata, then Smith Jr. goes. Makabe only goes if Tanahashi beats Shibata and Archer beats Smith Jr. It would not be out of the realm of possibility for Smith Jr. and Makabe to both lose, and Okada to lose as well, so Tanahashi beating Shibata would put Tanahashi in the finals.
They could always change, but Gedo & Jado's booking on the final day is usually based on everyone you expect to win then losing.