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Breaking down Velasquez vs. Werdum and best odds for bets on the match

by Jason Abrams

 
Cardio
Nobody has cardio like Cain Velasquez. The man is like a self-winding watch - as long as he's moving he keeps ticking. He went five grueling rounds twice with one of the most punishing knockout artists on the planet in Junior dos Santos. The only time he didn't either finish an opponent or win a decision was in his first match with dos Santos when he was caught in the first round by a devastating overhand right. That had nothing to do with cardio and everything to do with getting knocked the f****d out!
 
Werdum's cardio is not in question but it is not a hallmark of his MMA career as it is Velasquez's. The very nature of Werdum's style is a ground attack which is a different speed and tempo than stand-up where we have never witnessed Velasquez wilt when launching bombs and catching rockets in return.
EDGE: Velasquez

Striking
You can talk all day long about how far Werdum's striking has come but it will never be on par with the most prolific KO artist in all of MMA.  Cain Velasquez not only wields bone-crushing power but has the piston-like jab of a boxer. He will reel off endless combinations because his world-class cardio permits it. You will typically see Velasquez parry with a jab and then reach for every tool in the shed whether it be hard rights, uppercuts, hooks or elbows. Velasquez has the unique ability as a heavyweight to bring a Gatling gun attack with the power of a rocket launcher.
EDGE: Velazquez

Grappling
The immediate knee-jerk reaction would put this skill in Werdum's column but not so fast. Velasquez is a former D-1 wrestler and holds a black belt in BJJ under Leandro Viera but his ground game is often overlooked due to his fierce striking ability. Oftentimes he ragdolls his opponents to the canvas after a withering standup attack softens them up for the kill. Velasquez can maintain a dominant top position while continuing his relentless ground-and-pound which often spells doom for his opponents.
 
Fabricio Werdum is not a wrestler per se but he is the gold standard when it comes to BJJ. Werdum is a BJJ World Champion while holding black belts in Judo and Muay Thai. He has won numerous international events in submission grappling and is lethal when the fight hits the mat.  That being said if we are judging this strictly on the numbers we can see that Velasquez averages 5.28 takedowns per fight while Werdum averages a mere 1.83. The champion's takedowns defended is 88.89 percent versus only 36.67 percent for Werdum.
EDGE: Velasquez
 
Submissions
We won't even try to make a case for Cain Velasquez in this category. Even the most proficient mat tactician would pale compared to Werdum. UFC odds makers know that the champion has no submissions on his record while Werdum has won nine of his 19 fights in this manner. Whether Werdum is in the guard or on top, his submission skills are sublime and he can end the fight from any angle, anytime and anywhere. Velasquez would be wise to avoid the dragon's lair and be seduced into proving he is the superior ground fighter. Werdum is a beast on the mat.
EDGE: Werdum
 
Gambling best odds for the fight:

Total Rounds 
Over     2½    -130 (best line 5Dimes)
Under   2½    +115 (best line Bookmaker)

Fight is a Draw
Yes  +15000 (best line 5Dimes)
No    -45000 (best line 5Dimes)

Fight to end within the 1st min of 1st Round
Yes   +1400
No   -10000

 

Fight Goes 5 Round Distance
Yes  +160 (best line 5Dimes)
No   -195 (best line 5Dimes)

Velasquez wins Inside Distance
Yes  -150
No   +120

Werdum wins Inside Distance
Yes   +505
No    -810

Fight won by Decision 
Yes  +188 (best line Ladbrokes)
No   -275 (best line Ladbrokes)

Velasquez wins by Decision 
Yes  +225 (best line 888sport)
No   -278 (best line 5Dimes)

Werdum wins by Decision 
Yes  +1000 (best line SportsInteraction)
No   -1705 (best line 5Dimes)

Fight won by Submission 
Yes  +500 (best line Ladbrokes)
No   

Velasquez wins by Submission 
Yes  +1400 (best line SportsInteraction)
No   -1851 (best line 5Dimes)

Werdum wins by Submission 
Yes  +925 (best line 5Dimes)
No   -1875 (best line 5Dimes)

Fight won by KO, TKO, DQ
Yes  -163 (best line Ladbrokes)
No   

Velasquez wins by KO, TKO, DQ
Yes  -110 (best line 5Dimes)
No   -130 (best line 5Dimes)

Werdum wins by KO, TKO, DQ 
Yes  +1100 (best line Ladbrokes)
No   -2075 (best line 5Dimes)

Double Chance
KO / TKO or Decision    -900
KO / TKO or Submission  -275
Decision or Submission  +120

Velasquez wins by Unanimous Decision
Yes  +305 (best line 5Dimes)
No   -425 (best line 5Dimes)

Werdum wins by Unanimous Decision
Yes  +1305 (best line 5Dimes)
No   -3045 (best line 5Dimes)

Total Rounds
Over 1½     -278
Under 1½  +200
Over 2½     -150
Under 2½ ​ +110
Over 3½    +100
Under 3½  ​-134
Over 4½    +140
Under 4½ ​  -190

Velasquez wins by Split / Majority Decision
Yes   +838 (best line 5Dimes)
No    -1738 (best line 5Dimes)

 

Werdum wins by Split / Majority Decision
Yes   +1875 (best line 5Dimes)
No    -5625 (best line 5Dimes)

 

Total Rounds
Fight starts round 5        +1100 (best line Ladbrokes)
Fight won't start round 5  +750 (best line Ladbrokes)
Fight starts round 4           -109 (best line 5Dimes)
Fight won't start round 4  +500 (best line Ladbrokes)
Fight starts round 3           -161 (best line 5Dimes)
Fight won't start round 3  +333 (best line Ladbrokes)
Fight starts round 2           -375 (best line 5Dimes)
Fight won't start round 2  +285 (best line 5Dimes)

Round - Betting
Velasquez in round 1 +350 (Best line SportsInteraction)
Velasquez in round 2 +500 (best line SportsInteraction)
Velasquez in round 3 +800 (best line 888sport)
Velasquez in round 4 +1200 (best line SportsInteraction)
Velasquez in round 5 +1600 (best line 888sport)

 

Round - Betting
Werdum in round 1  +1400 (best line 888sport)
Werdum in round 2  +2000 (best line 888sport)
Werdum in round 3  +2500 (best line 888sport)
Werdum in round 4  +3300 (best line Ladbrokes)
Werdum in round 5  +4000 (best line Ladbrokes)