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UFC on Fox 15: Betting picks from the Secret Psychic Spy~!

UFC on Fox 15

Submitted by The Secret Psychic Spy for WrestlingObserver.com

- Starting Bankroll: $1,000
- Current Bankroll: $1,015.52
- Last week: 2/5
- Overall: 40/67 (60%)

The bad news from last week is that I went 2-3. But who cares because the “2” were both underdog and I made a slight profit which pushed me back over my starting bankroll. It’s not much but it’s better than being down. And with this week’s picks, there’s a chance to increase that substantially. UFC is FOX for 8 big fights on Saturday along with 3 fights on Fight Pass. The middleweights take the stage with 3 of the top 5 contenders all fighting and if you want some eye candy, we’ll uncle Dana’s got that for you as well when the Strawweights take the stage.

Actually Rockhold’s quite handsome as well so there’s eye candy all around. I’ve looked up and down the card and come up with 5 picks that should make you and I some money while we enjoy a night of fights.

PICK 1 – Jim Miller (24-5) +160 over Beneil Dariush (10-1) I’m betting $100 to win $160

I’m really surprised to see Miller as an underdog here. He’s fought the best of the best in the toughest division in UFC and has only lost to Donald Cerrone, Nate Diaz, Benson Henderson and Gray Maynard (when he was still competitive). Dariush is a promising prospect but this is a big step up for him. Miller is tough as nails and he’s never lost consecutive fights. This won’t be the first time.

PICK 2 – Takeya Mizugaki (20-8-2) +300 over Aljamain Sterling (10-0) I’m betting $100 to win $300

I don’t get the odds on this one at all. Yes, Sterling’s got a perfect record but Mizugaki had won six in a row prior to getting knocked out by Dominick Cruz last year. He is not Cody Gibson or Hugo Vianna, and he’s not going down to Sterling. Get your money on this one before those odds come down.

PICK 3 – Tim Means (23-6-1) -150 over George Sullivan (16-3) I’m betting $100 to win $66.67

Means is one of the most physically gifted fighters in the division and is coming off a first round KO of Dhiego Lima just six weeks ago. He’s on the fast track to the top 15 with three straight wins. Sullivan is unbeaten in UFC and has won 8 in a row overall but it’s against much lighter competition than Means.

PICK 4 – Lyoto Machida (22-5) +140 over Luke Rockhold (13-2) I’m betting $100 to win $140

This one is a pick ‘em in my book and as I always say when you’ve got a pick em and can get plus odds on one of the fighters, you take it. People seem to be writing Machida off in this one. He took Chris Weidman to the limit last summer in his title shot and blitzed CB Dolloway in the followup fight. Rockhold is good….very good. But Machida is the biggest name and best fighter he’s ever faced. At even money, I wouldn’t touch this fight, but when I can get Lyoto Machida at plus odds against a guy that’s never even fought for a UFC title, I’m gonna take it every time.

PICK 5 – Cub Swanson (21-6) -150 over Max Holloway (12-3) I’m betting $100 to win $66.67

Looking back over Swanson’s record and you see a pattern. He beats every mid-ranked contender (Holloway would be included here) put in front of him and loses when he faces a top guy. I see no reason to expect anything different. Holloway is just 23 and has a bright future ahead of him but his 5 fight winning streak is about to come to a screeching halt. Don’t forget…prior to his loss to Frankie Edgar, he’d won 6 in a row himself.

In total, I’m betting $500 with a chance to win $733.33.


2015 Betting Game: Secret Psychic Spy vs Todd Martin


- Todd Martin: $849.02 (Picked Lapilus, Murphy, Silva, Nelson, Pennington, Shockley, Henderson, Woodley and Krylov)
- Secret Psychic Spy: $1,016.96 (Picked Pawlak, Carmouche, Santos, Cruickshank, Salazar, Strickland, Kelly, Lauzon and Aliev)

Both of us won last week but I picked a fairly sizeable underdog. I said when I took the lead that I wouldn’t be looking back and I meant it. I’ll keep increasing my lead until there’s absolutely no doubt who the premier prognosticator is. This week, I’m picking Jim Miller for the reasons listed above.

Todd’s pick and analysis:

Patrick Cummins -125 over Ovince St. Preux

You couldn't have served up a better style matchup for Patrick Cummins. St. Preux may be the better overall fighter with his length, striking and athleticism, but his biggest vulnerability may be his defensive wrestling. That's Cummins' forte. I think he'll grind out St. Preux and win a gritty decision.

Good luck, enjoy the fights and above all else, let’s beat Todd!