AEW Full Gear preview & predictions: One Title After Another
Image: AEW
Editor’s Note: The following is an opinion-based preview that reflects the views of the author and not the website.
I can feel AEW’s autumn fog lifting.
They ripped off a killer Blood and Guts last week and followed it up with a mostly solid week of TV, highlighted by the announcement of this year’s Continental Classic: AEW’s reliable creative defibrillator. Every year, the tournament gives Tony Khan a stable, crowd-pleasing tentpole to book around, and I’m hoping this installment brings the same spark.
Historically, the CC has triggered a significant shift in how hot the product feels. Suddenly, the matches are crisper, the promos tighten up, and the entire show carries a renewed sense of urgency. It’s the closest thing AEW has to flipping the ‘ON’ switch.
Hopefully the switch gets hit this Saturday from scenic Newark, New Jersey. Let’s run through the matches and predictions for this Saturday’s AEW Full Gear (8 PM Eastern main card start on PPV) and see how things shake out
Jon Moxley vs. Kyle O’Reilly in a no holds barred match
Hopefully, the end of Blood and Guts reawakened something inside Kyle O’Reilly and reminded him of what and who he is — the violent artist. He felt unleashed and at home in that match, capped off by the full-on moment of tapping out Jon Moxley in a bed of broken glass.
As Moxley does with everyone, he dragged the violence out of O’Reilly, and I pray he dragged it out for good. I’m sure the Conglomeration version of O’Reilly has its fans, but I am not one. That’s not an act to be taken seriously. The post-show promo after that match was a great start, and this week’s Dynamite was an incredible follow-up.
I’m excited to see what the NHB stipulation brings. If this lands, KOR is suddenly, and unexpectedly, a key player in AEW’s upper mid-card. What a wonderful development that would be. Mox has done a remarkable (and honestly shocking) amount of losing for a company ace. If he loses again, O’Reilly might be making a climb up the AEW pecking order.
And I’ll end with a question: Is this a Roderick Strong heel turn?
Prediction: Moxley wins
Darby Allin vs. PAC
This is a match with two men who have no regard for the integrity of their spinal columns. Allin’s bump freak proclivities require no explanation or exposition, but PAC is right there with him when it comes to the willingness to being spiked on his head. An enthusiastic and frequent vertebrae compressor, his absence from TV allows us to forget that no one is willing to eat a DDT quite like our newly short-haired king.
This pairing is long overdue. PAC is at his best when he gets to be cruel; Darby is at his best when someone tries to kill him. Even if there was no story between these two, the pairing is one worth watching. Instead, we have something compelling: Darby’s continual antagonism of the Death Riders and PAC’s desire to bend him (and everyone really) into a pretzel.
Pencil in a few groan-inducing bumps, Darby nearly paralyzing himself, and the slow realization that AEW will absolutely let these two try to fold each other like beach chairs.
Prediction: Darby Allin
Babes of Wrath (Willow Nightingale & Harley Cameron) vs. Sisters of Sin (Julia Hart & Skye Blue) vs. Timeless Love Bombs (Toni Storm & Mina Shirakawa) vs. Megan Bayne & Marina Shafir
The winning team gets to pick a stipulation for their semifinal match in the Women’s World Tag Team title tournament.
A four-way like this should feel like a showcase of a thriving division and, in most cases, it does. The Babes of Wrath bring energy and personality every time they show up, even if they skew too close to a comedy act for my liking (Willow should be champion).
The Sisters of Sin know who they are and what the act should be while the Timeless Love Bombs (lol) are pure camp and charisma. Full credit to Toni Storm for effortlessly slotting down from the main event scene to lend serious weight to the tournament. Bayne and Shafir work well as two unique forces of nature thrown together by circumstance. With more time to gel and unite in storyline, the accidental pairing of monsters could realistically anchor the division through its infancy.
And that gets to the heart of it: this still feels like a collection of potential rather than a field of established contenders. There’s talent everywhere, but not enough definition. If even one or two of these teams had been given a month more build or a reason to exist beyond the bracket, this could feel like a true showcase instead of a promising sketch. This division certainly isn’t struggling; it sometimes lacks the connective tissue needed to feel cohesive.
Prediction: Bayne & Shafir
Kenny Omega & Jurassic Express (Jack Perry and Luchasaurus) vs. The Young Bucks (Matt Jackson and Nick Jackson) & Josh Alexander
This feels like it only exists to keep The Elite on the treadmill while AEW tries to figure out where the hell to point Kenny Omega next.
On Josh Nason’s podcast, we ended up talking about the diminishing supply of “true Kenny Omega matches” left, and he said something that stuck with me: every Omega match should feel like an event. Given the miles on his body, there’s no room for throwaways.
That’s why this match worries me. It doesn’t feel like it’s building to a spectacle; it just feels like a placeholder. Kenny doesn’t need elaborate stories or six weeks of promos. You can have him point at Josh Alexander, Kevin Knight, or Takeshita and say, “Let’s go” and boom, you’ve got something meaningful. Instead, we’re back in Elite-adjacent territory and the last time AEW went down that road, the returns were…uneven, to be kind.
Jurassic Express is here because AEW still thinks that brand has juice (they don’t) and think Alexander is excellent at professional wrestling (he is!). The Bucks seem like they won’t be joining the Don Callis family, and that’s what will cost them the match.
Prediction: Kenny Omega and Jurassic Express
Casino Gauntlet match for the inaugural AEW National Championship
My favorite part of writing these columns is the moment I hit “Submit Draft.” My second favorite part is coming up with the titles. And ironically, this column’s title was the only time I enjoyed referencing AEW’s ballooning championship collection (For my PTA heads, my other working title was ‘A Few Small Championships’).
Between AEW and the specter of ROH, there are simply too many belts for any of them to carry weight. Scarcity gives championships meaning and hierarchy gives a roster shape. AEW keeps adding gold like it has a hidden quota to hit, and every new belt chips away at the value of the others. The pecking order gets muddied as we inch toward a future where anyone even moderately competent has hardware. That’s not prestige, that’s clutter.
Prediction: I don’t know, probably Bobby Lashley? Don’t make me do this one.
TNT Champion Kyle Fletcher (w/ Don Callis) defends against Mark Briscoe in a no DQ match
If Briscoe loses, he will be forced to join the Don Callis Family.
Even though this feud still has a little juice left, it’s past its expiration date. This is their third PPV meeting of the year and while the first two matches ranged from good to genuinely great depending on your taste, the rivalry has been stretched thin. The heat just isn’t there anymore. If AEW wanted this to truly matter, the moment to put the TNT title on Briscoe was WrestleDream. That was the peak. Everything since has been diminishing returns.
The TNT Championship isn’t a title that benefits from a year-long saga and in this case, it’s been secondary to the feud the entire time. We’d celebrate a Briscoe triumph even without a belt attached. What people want is simple: Briscoe finally giving the smug prince of the Callis family his long-overdue comeuppance.
But stretching this any further won’t add meaning and continues to dilute what once could have landed with weight. Imagine if Briscoe had won the title months ago? That would have been ideal. Nevertheless, his time is now.
Prediction: Mark Briscoe
AEW World Tag Team Champions Brodido (Bandido and Brody King) defend against FTR (Cash Wheeler and Dax Harwood) (w/ Stokely)
This match rules on paper: compatible styles, clearly evident chemistry, and, most importantly, the existence of Bandido. The man is a pro wrestling treasure with so much physical charisma, it’s sickening. Everything he does is must-see (he pinned Okada for god’s sake!). If that doesn’t tell you what AEW thinks of his future, nothing will.
FTR has been in an almost endless holding pattern, and, at long last, it seems like they have real forward momentum. Brodido, meanwhile, is still fresh and fun. The problem with fresh and fun is that it has a finite shelf life. History tells us that thrown-together tag teams rarely sustain momentum forever, no matter how good they are. AEW also loves the quick-hit shock run to give the unexpected team a little pop, then slide the belts back to the long-term pillars when it’s time to resume the Serious Stories™.
Here’s the twist, though: Brodido is too fun and too popular to cut off this early…which is exactly why FTR needs to win. A heel FTR paired with Stokely Hathaway has infinitely more long-term juice as champions than as chasers and beating such a popular team cements them as heels. Brodido can stay hot without the belts; FTR needs them.
Prediction: FTR
AEW Women’s World Champion Kris Statlander defends against Mercedes Mone
This is the biggest test of Kris Statlander’s career. Can she go 15+ minutes with the women’s division’s version of the Best Bout Machine? Statlander has always been at her best when she’s pushed. When the moment demands something more, she finds it.
Winning the title was a genuine shock; the Toni Storm match at WrestleDream validated that surprise. But this? This is the one that seals the deal. A win over Mone establishes Statlander not just as champion, but as a made woman on top of the card for as long as she wants it.
As for the endless and agonising online whining about Mone collecting belts, please. Breathe some fresh air. Many of the titles she’s holding come from companies so small they barely have websites, let alone Wikipedia pages. The idea that putting their belts on a legitimate global star is “bad for their business” is galaxy-brained nonsense. If anything, she’s giving these titles oxygen and relevance they couldn’t dream of on their own.
More importantly, those complaints miss the entire point of the character. She’s collecting belts precisely because she can’t win the one that matters: the AEW Women’s World Championship. The overcompensating, the theatricality, the bravado are all armor covering the fact that she feels incomplete without that title. She’s chasing validation she can’t quite grasp, and she knows it. If you can’t see that this is interesting character work, try activating your frontal lobe.
Prediction: Kris Statlander
AEW World Champion Hangman Page defends against Samoa Joe in a steel cage
Samoa Joe brings a gravity that few on the roster can. The second he steps into a segment, the air gets heavy and the stakes rise. A steel cage is the perfect setting for him. When you wrestle Joe, there is no escape.
There’s a slight problem in this case: Page has his own propensities towards violence and a bloodlust all his own. He’s not afraid to be trapped in a cage with Joe, just like he wasn’t afraid to have a Texas Death Match with Jon Moxley. Sure, he’s the babyface champion now, but the other side of his coin is stained in blood.
Hangman’s reign has been good. Characterising it as boring might be a little short-sighted. No reign could ever match the catharsis of his ascent, capped by pulling the World title out from the briefcase and into the light. We’ll always remember that, but we need something to remember what happened after.
It would be a remarkable surprise for Hangman to lose on Saturday, but there’s too much meat on the bone. He’s never better than when he leans into his brutal side, and the cage allows for that. Page’s run at the top continues.
Prediction: Hangman Adam Page
Mike DellaCamera has covered AEW since it began. He's just as surprised as you are.