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Big shift in odds for WWE Payback match


There was a huge shift in the odds today on the Bayley vs. Alexa Bliss Raw Women's Championship match in San Jose.

Between 3 a.m. and 7:35 a.m. Eastern time today, Bayley went from a 36-to-1 favorite to retain her championship at Payback, to Alexa Bliss now being a 45-to-1 favorite to win the match (not necessarily to win the title, but most likely).

With such giant odds and such a quick and giant swing, that is almost assuredly smart money coming in after a change in plans.

The first smart money backing Bayley came in between 11 a.m. and 1:45 p.m. yesterday.

Up until that point, there weren't long odds, meaning that a final decision on the outcome wasn't known internally. There is a Vince McMahon doctrine, completely the opposite of almost everyone else in wrestling, and the opposite of everyone who books stars in combat sports, where he will usually beat or humiliate performers in their hometown. The mentality behind it is that it's great for heel heat, which is difficult to get.

There has been no significant movement in any of the odds reported on yesterday, past them becoming even longer in all other matches.

UPDATE: The Bayley vs. Alexa Bliss match has had a change once again since our last update.

As of two hours ago, tons of money has come in on Bayley and Austin Aries to win their matches this afternoon.

Bayley had a big rush coming in at about 6 p.m. to where she went from a 45-to-1 underdog to a favorite, but right now Bliss is back to being a 15-to-1 favorite to win the title. These odds updates came in after the daily update was completed so are more current than those.

Austin Aries has gone from a 92-to-1 underdog to a 20-to-1 favorite over the past few hours.

All the other favorites listed yesterday remain the same.

This indicates a lot of changes have been going on in the last 24 hours.

Thanks to David Taylor at for the updates on how the money has been coming in.