Rousey vs Carano Predictions: MVP MMA 1 Main Event
I think Ronda Rousey wins this, but it all depends on cage rust and where she is mentally. The market has her at -650 across major books, and I’d say that’s about right…maybe even a tad too low. My pick is Rousey winning by first-round armbar inside 90 seconds, but I’m not THAT confident.
Rousey averaged 4.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes in the UFC, the highest figure in women’s bantamweight history (via UFCStats). Her average fight time across 12 pro bouts is 3 minutes and 5 seconds. Eleven of her 12 wins are finishes, most by armbar. Carano has never been submitted in a pro MMA bout, but her last pro fight was way back in 2009, so I think that record potentially gets busted this weekend if Rousey comes in like the fighter she was in her prime (which isn’t a guarantee at all).
Rousey vs Carano Career stats compared
| Stat | Rousey | Carano |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-2 | 7-1 |
| Wins by submission | 9 | 1 |
| Wins by KO/TKO | 3 | 3 |
| Wins by decision | 0 | 3 |
| Sig. strikes landed/min | 4.17 | 4.50 |
| Sig. strike accuracy | 52% | 47% |
| Sig. strikes absorbed/min | 4.14 | 2.66 |
| Sig. strike defense | 44% | 64% |
| Takedown avg / 15 min | 6.26 | 1.24 |
| Takedown accuracy | 68% | 66% |
| Takedown defense | 50% | 85% |
| Sub. attempts / 15 min | 4.8 | 1.6 |
| Last fight | Dec 30, 2016 (KO loss, Nunes, R1 0:48) | Aug 15, 2009 (TKO loss, Cyborg, R1 4:59) |
| Age at fight night | 39 | 44 |
| Height | 5’7″ | 5’8″ |
| Layoff | ~9.5 years | ~16.5 years |
How Ronda Rousey wins this
Rousey closes the distance, ties up in the clinch, throws Carano with a hip toss or harai goshi, takes side control and isolates the arm. That’s been her template since 2011, and nothing on Carano’s resume suggests she is going to be able to stop it here.
Carano’s takedown defense was never tested against a truly elite level grappler (Cyborg didn’t need to wrestle her). Against an Olympic-level judoka who’s been drilling armbars for 20 years, a 16-year layoff isn’t going to do her any favors.
How Gina Carano wins this
The case for Carano, and there is a slight one, rests on Rousey’s chin and where she is mentally. Two of her last three fights ended with her unconscious: Holly Holm head-kicked her in 59 seconds of round two and Amanda Nunes obliterated her in 48 seconds. Carano hits hard, is naturally bigger at 145, and only needs one clean right hand to rock Rousey, so there’s a chance it happens.
My prediction
As I’ve already said, I can see Rousey by armbar, round one, inside 90 seconds. If Carano is able to survive the opening five minutes, the whole shape of the fight changes. Rousey’s gas tank after nine years out is the real unknown here, and Carano’s striking volume could start to work in her favor if Rousey starts to slow down. Having said that, if Rousey is where she needs to be from a confidence standpoint…I don’t see this fight reaching round two.
The honest weakness in my pick here is cage rust and the weight of the event on both fighters. Both women are deep into their layoffs, and timing under cage lights is always the first thing to go. If Rousey’s grip slips on that first armbar attempt, then it affects her confidence and the mental game starts to work against her.
Jake is an SEO-minded Football, Combat Sports, Gaming and Pro Wrestling writer, successful Editor in Chief, Sports SEO Coordinator for NationalWorld and SEO Writer for F4Wonline.com. He has more than ten years of experience covering mixed martial arts, pro wrestling, football and gaming across a number of publications, starting at SEScoops in 2012 under the name Jake Jeremy. His work has also been featured on Wrestling Headlines, Wrestlingnewsco, HotNewHipHop, The Hard Times and Sportskeeda.
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