UFC 324 Predictions Gaethje vs Pimblett Main Card

UFC 324 takes place Saturday, January 24, 2026 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, with Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett headlining for the interim UFC lightweight title. The main card is built around high-pace striking, a few volatile underdogs, and at least one line that feels wider than the matchup.

Main event prediction: Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett

The books are pricing Pimblett as the favorite (around -230), with Gaethje the underdog (around +176). That is a bold number considering Gaethje’s track record against elite lightweights and the kind of damage he can land early with leg kicks and pressure.

Pimblett’s clearest path is forcing messy grappling and scrambling, then finding a submission or stealing rounds with control. The problem is that Gaethje is hard to hold down, and if this stays striking-heavy for long stretches, Gaethje’s power and pace can swing the fight fast.

Pick: Justin Gaethje by TKO (Rounds 3 to 4).

Co-main prediction: Sean O’Malley vs Song Yadong

O’Malley vs Song has been promoted to the co-main event after the UFC 324 main card reshuffle. Odds-wise, O’Malley is favored at -215 and Song sits around +164.

Song is dangerous in the pocket and can change a fight with one clean shot, but over three rounds O’Malley’s range management and shot selection usually win him the minutes, especially if he keeps the fight at kicking distance.

Pick: Sean O’Malley by decision.

Main card Likely Outcomes: Lewis, Namajunas, Allen

• Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Derrick Lewis: Lewis has been priced as a sizable underdog in spots (around +240 reported), which tells you the market expects Cortes-Acosta to win rounds with cleaner volume and fewer risks. Lewis is always live for a knockout, but the safer pick is the younger, steadier fighter.

Pick: Cortes-Acosta by decision.

• Natália Silva vs Rose Namajunas: Silva has been listed as a clear favorite (roughly -400 range depending on the book movement). Namajunas’ experience at the top level is a big leveller, but Silva’s speed and consistency at flyweight make her the pick here.

Pick: Natália Silva by decision

• Arnold Allen vs Jean Silva: The line has Jean Silva around -230 with Allen about +180. Allen can win if he drags this into later rounds, but Silva’s finishing threat and momentum get the nod.

Pick: Jean Silva by TKO (Rounds 1 to 2)

Full UFC 324 predictions

Jake Skudder

Jake is an SEO-minded Football, Combat Sports, Gaming and Pro Wrestling writer, successful Editor in Chief, Sports SEO Coordinator for NationalWorld and SEO Writer for F4Wonline.com. He has more than ten years of experience covering mixed martial arts, pro wrestling, football and gaming across a number of publications, starting at SEScoops in 2012 under the name Jake Jeremy. His work has also been featured on Wrestling Headlines, Wrestlingnewsco, HotNewHipHop, The Hard Times and Sportskeeda.

Previously, he worked as the Editor in Chief of 24Wrestling, building the site profile with a view to selling the domain, which was accomplished in 2019. Jake was previously the Editor in Chief for FightFans, a combat sports and pro wrestling site that was launched in January 2021 and broke into millions of pageviews within the first two years. He previously worked for Snack Media and their GiveMeSport site, creating Evergreen and Trending content that would deliver pageviews via Google as the UFC and MMA SEO Lead. Jake managed to take an area of GiveMeSport that had zero traction on Organic and push it to audiences across the globe. Jake also has a record of long-term video and written interview content with the likes of the Professional Fighters League, ONE and Cage Warriors, working directly with the brands to promote bouts, fighters and special events.

He previously worked for the (then) biggest independent wrestling company in the UK, PROGRESS Wrestling, as PR Head and Head of Media across the social channels of the company.

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