UFC Houston 2026 Strickland vs Hernandez Predictions
UFC Houston goes down on Saturday, February 21, 2026 from the Toyota Center, streaming on Paramount+ with prelims at 5 p.m. ET and the main card at 8 p.m. ET.
Below are my UFC Houston predictions for the fights that will shape the night most, starting with the five round main event at middleweight.
Quick picks (main card)
| Fight | Prediction |
|---|---|
| Sean Strickland vs Anthony Hernandez | Hernandez by decision |
| Geoff Neal vs Uros Medic | Neal by KO or TKO |
| Dan Ige vs Melquizael Costa | Costa by decision |
| Ante Delija vs Serghei Spivac | Delija by decision |
| Michel Pereira vs Zach Reese | Pereira by KO or TKO |
| Jacobe Smith vs Josiah Harrell | Smith by decision |
Main event prediction: Anthony Hernandez vs Sean Strickland
This matchup is basically cardio grappling pressure vs jab heavy, front foot boxing. On paper, Hernandez has the clearest win condition: force clinches, chain takedowns, and make every minute ugly. Strickland lands at high volume (5.95 significant strikes per minute via UFC Stats), while Hernandez’s game is built around takedowns (6.46 per 15 minutes) and submission threats (1.8 subs per 15).
The betting market has largely treated Hernandez as the favorite, with lines around Hernandez -285 and Strickland +230 (as of Feb 16). The key question is whether Strickland can keep enough stretches upright to win rounds. He is good at making fights competitive on the cards, which is why the “Strickland stays close” angle has shown up in early betting analysis.
Pick: Hernandez by decision. Over five rounds, Hernandez’s pace and repeated takedown attempts should bank minutes even if he is not holding long top control.
Geoff Neal vs Uros Medic
Neal being a slight favorite makes sense in a three round fight where one clean shot can swing everything. Neal is currently listed at around -185. Medic is live early, but Neal’s experience in high level welterweight fights and his ability to punish mistakes makes him my predicted winner.
Pick: Neal by KO or TKO.
Dan Ige vs Melquizael Costa
This is a tough style test for Ige because Costa can push tempo and pile up damage in volume spots. Tapology has Costa favored (around -220). Ige is durable and savvy, so I lean decision rather than a quick finish.
Pick: Costa by decision.
Ante Delija vs Serghei Spivac
Several predictions have made a strong early case for Delija as a value side given how weird the optics were around his most recent result, and they noted available numbers near -150. Tapology also leans Delija as the favorite (around -170).
Pick: Delija by decision.
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