Brandon Moreno vs Lone’er Kavanagh Fight Preview and Breakdown UFC Mexico 2026

Brandon Moreno headlines UFC Fight Night in Mexico City on Saturday, February 28, 2026, taking on England’s Lone’er Kavanagh in a flyweight main event at Arena CDMX. This fight reads like a classic “established elite vs rising pressure fighter” clash, with pace, scrambles and decision making likely deciding the result.

Stylistic differences in striking pace and shot selection

Moreno’s best work is built on layered pressure: he closes distance behind volume, mixes stance looks, and forces long exchanges where his timing and durability usually show up. His octagon career numbers reflect a steady, efficient output (3.89 significant strikes landed per minute, 44% accuracy) with solid striking defense (60%) while absorbing 3.62 per minute (via UFCStats).

Kavanagh’s profile is more aggressive at a similar efficiency, landing 4.29 significant strikes per minute at 49% accuracy (via UFCStats). The key question is whether he can keep that tempo when Moreno pushes him into repeated second and third phase exchanges, where Moreno is very comfortable in taking small wins and bankable minutes.

Tale of the tape

Stylistic differences in grappling and scramble chains

This is where Moreno can tilt the fight, because he is not just a takedown threat, he is a transition threat. Moreno averages 1.47 takedowns per 15 minutes, giving him a reliable way to change the picture if striking exchanges get messy.

Kavanagh’s clearest defensive selling point so far is his takedown resistance. In the UFC he has a 88.9% takedown defense, stopping 8 of 9 attempts. If that manages to hold against Moreno’s chaining and body lock work, the fight stays in Kavanagh’s preferred rhythm of high pace, frequent resets, and lots of open space.

Key UFC stats snapshot

How this fight is likely to be won

Moreno’s cleanest path to victory is to use volume to draw big exchanges, then layer in clinch touches and takedown attempts to sap Kavanagh’s pace.

Kavanagh’s path is to win the first beat of exchanges repeatedly. If he can get off first, exit clean, and force Moreno to restart without giving up prolonged clinch time then he has a really good chance of taking a decision.

With both men making weight cleanly in Mexico City, expect a fast start and a mid fight adjustment phase where Moreno’s experience in five round reads can really matter most.

Jake Skudder

Jake is an SEO-minded Football, Combat Sports, Gaming and Pro Wrestling writer, successful Editor in Chief, Sports SEO Coordinator for NationalWorld and SEO Writer for F4Wonline.com. He has more than ten years of experience covering mixed martial arts, pro wrestling, football and gaming across a number of publications, starting at SEScoops in 2012 under the name Jake Jeremy. His work has also been featured on Wrestling Headlines, Wrestlingnewsco, HotNewHipHop, The Hard Times and Sportskeeda.

Previously, he worked as the Editor in Chief of 24Wrestling, building the site profile with a view to selling the domain, which was accomplished in 2019. Jake was previously the Editor in Chief for FightFans, a combat sports and pro wrestling site that was launched in January 2021 and broke into millions of pageviews within the first two years. He previously worked for Snack Media and their GiveMeSport site, creating Evergreen and Trending content that would deliver pageviews via Google as the UFC and MMA SEO Lead. Jake managed to take an area of GiveMeSport that had zero traction on Organic and push it to audiences across the globe. Jake also has a record of long-term video and written interview content with the likes of the Professional Fighters League, ONE and Cage Warriors, working directly with the brands to promote bouts, fighters and special events.

He previously worked for the (then) biggest independent wrestling company in the UK, PROGRESS Wrestling, as PR Head and Head of Media across the social channels of the company.

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