Conor McGregor has just two rounds to beat Max Holloway | UFC 329 Analysis and Prediction

My big prediction for tonight’s UFC 329 main event is that Conor McGregor needs to win this in the opening 10 minutes…or the fight goes to a cardio machine in Max Holloway.

McGregor comes into this fight as the underdog for good reason; it’s been five years, no one knows how his leg break has healed from the Poirier fight, plus Max Holloway’s pace and volume have troubled fighters in their prime, let alone someone coming back after such a long layoff.

Holloway will drown McGregor if he is not careful

McGregor has to start throwing bombs early. Over his career, McGregor has thrown throws 5.3 significant strikes per minute, whereas Holloway current sits on 6.9. It’s +1.6 gap that doesn’t sound too big on paper, but when you stretch that out over a five-round fight it’s roughly an extra 43 extra significant strikes over 25 minute. Those extra strikes will really start to tell in the later rounds when McGregor is likely to get gassed.

Conor gasses, he might say that he doesn’t but you need to look at the patterns. He got the first-round win over Cerrone, the second round finish of Alvarez…but times where the fight has gone longer he has faded late on in recent years. He took that Khabib submission loss in round 4 near 8 years ago, so unless his cardio game has improved in that time he will struggle against a volume fighter like Holloway.

McGregor can still win this

I am not writing off the Irish star, not at all, but he really does need to finish this as early as possible with that massive right hand of his.

And there’s a differential that could allow him to do it, namely when it comes to his reach. Max gives up five inches of reach in this one, and McGregor is easily the harder puncher. McGregor was able to wobble Holloway in their Featherweight fight in 2013 in the second round before winning by decision, so imagine what he could do multiple weight classes up at Welterweight?

If Conor can throw and hit Holloway early on then he has genuine chance here to win by KO/TKO. Max has to get through the first two rounds and then I think the fight is his.

Prediction: McGregor in Rounds 1 or 2 or Max in Rounds 4 or 5/Decision

All statistical information via UFCStats and AgentMMA

Max Holloway vs Conor McGregor Tale of the tape

Jake Skudder

Jake is the Head of Audience at F4WOnline, having previously worked as a Combat Sports, Gaming and Pro Wrestling writer, successful Editor in Chief and Sports Coordinator for NationalWorld. He has more than ten years of experience covering mixed martial arts, pro wrestling, football and gaming across a number of publications, starting at SEScoops in 2012. His work has also been featured on Wrestling Headlines, Wrestlingnewsco, HotNewHipHop and The Hard Times.

Previously, he worked as the Editor in Chief of 24Wrestling, building the site profile with a view to selling the domain, which was accomplished in 2019. Jake was previously the Editor in Chief for FightFans, a combat sports and pro wrestling site that was launched in January 2021 and broke into millions of pageviews within the first two years. He previously worked for Snack Media and their GiveMeSport site, creating Evergreen and Trending content that would deliver pageviews via Google as the UFC and MMA SEO Lead. Jake managed to take an area of GiveMeSport that had zero traction on Organic and push it to audiences across the globe. Jake also has a record of long-term video and written interview content with the likes of the Professional Fighters League, ONE and Cage Warriors, working directly with the brands to promote bouts, fighters and special events.

He previously also worked for PROGRESS Wrestling, as PR Head and Head of Media across the social channels of the company.

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