How Justin Gaethje beat Ilia Topuria at UFC Freedom 250: By the numbers
Justin Gaethje became the undisputed UFC Lightweight Champion this past weekend, defeating Ilia Topuria at UFC Freedom 250. According to UFCStats.com, Topuria out-landed Gaethje almost everywhere that looks good on paper, but then (barely) watched his own corner wave the fight off at the end of round four. This is a perfect case of the stats not matching what actually happened in the octagon, because something you can’t measure on paper is damage inflicted, which Topuria took a TON of to the face over 20 minutes.
Topuria landed 97 significant strikes to Justin Gaethje’s 91 over the four rounds, and he had 59% accuracy against Gaethje’s 47%. Topuria scored the only knockdown, plus he got the only takedown of the fight, and out-controlled Gaethje 2:32 to 1:32.
The round-two trap
Round two was Topuria’s best of the fight, but also his undoing. He hit 44 of 60 significant strikes for an impressive 73% success rate, with Gaethje managing just 12 of 35.
But, Gaethje banks damage like nobody else at 155lbs. He ate the strikes during the round, stayed upright, and let Topuria empty his tank.
| Round | Topuria (sig. str.) | Gaethje (sig. str.) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29 of 58 (50%) | 32 of 68 (47%) |
| 2 | 44 of 60 (73%) | 12 of 35 (34%) |
| 3 | 7 of 15 (46%) | 22 of 36 (61%) |
| 4 | 17 of 29 (58%) | 25 of 53 (47%) |
Where it flipped
Round three is where it all went downhill for Ilia. Topuria’s output fell off a cliff, from 44 landed to 7. His accuracy held at a respectable 46%, but he threw just 15 significant strikes across five minutes. Gaethje capitalized on an opponent who was running on empty, cranked his own output up to 22 of 36, and never let up.
By round four the gap got even bigger: Gaethje got to 25 landed of 53 thrown, Topuria 17 of 29.
The head-hunting that won it
86% of Gaethje’s significant strikes went to the head, with 79 landed up top against Topuria’s 55. Topuria spread his work around, going 37 of 45 to the body at an 82% clip, which is smart fight IQ on paper, but Gaethje knew what he was doing.
What the numbers miss
As I already mentioned, the stats on paper don’t measure damage, because strikes landed doesn’t measure what each one actually did. Topuria’s 97 were cleaner and more varied, but Gaethje’s 91 were heavier, higher, and pointed at one target (Topuria’s head). Despite all of the damage Topuria will not require surgery for the injury (as confirmed in the Irish Star).
Gaethje won because he let Topuria tire himself out in Round 2 and then was relentless with blows to the head/face for the two rounds afterwards.
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