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UFC 188 Picks From The Secret Psychic Spy~!

By the Secret Psychic Spy (secretpsychicspy@yahoo.com)

Starting Bankroll: $1,500

Current Bankroll: $621.67

Last week: 3/5 Overall 54/95 (57%)

Starting to turn things around with a small profit last week. Should hopefully keep the momentum going this week with the 5 picks I’ve found worth value from UFC 188 this weekend. It’s a return to Mexico and the return of the one who beat the one who beat the streak…or something like that. Cain Velasquez returns after a 20 month absence. Speaking of which…

Pick 1 – Fabricio Werdum (19-5-1) +400 over Cain Velasquez (13-1) I’m betting $100 to win $500

Taking a long shot here but I really like these odds. Werdum has steamrolled his way to this title shot and is facing a guy who will no doubt have some Octagon rust. I’ve even heard rumours that Cain might not be at 100% and if that’s the case, these odds are way out of whack. If this were an even money bet, I might lean toward Cain but no way should he be a 5 to 1 favorite.

Pick 2 – Charles Rosa (10-1) -225 over Yair Rodriguez (4-1) I’m betting $100 to win $44.44

Rodriguez has this main card slot on a PPV because he won TUF Latin America but he struggled to win a decision against a similarly inexperienced opponent at UFC 180. Rosa is “Boston Strong” and walked into enemy territory on short notice last year in his UFC debut and almost beat tough veteran Dennis Siver. He followed that up with a brilliant performance earlier this year and should keep the momentum going on Saturday.

Pick 3 – Tecia Torres (5-0) over Angela Hill (2-0) I’m betting $100 to win $34.48

You may recall that Torres was one of the favorites going into the TUF 20 tournament to crown a new Strawweight champion. She went to a majority decision with eventual champion Carla Esparza but is unbeaten in official pro bouts. Hill is very inexperienced and while improving each time out, she should be no match for “The Tiny Tornado”.

Pick 4 – Clay Collard (14-5) -255 over Gabriel Benitez (17-4) I’m betting $100 to win $39.22

Though the records look similar, Collard has faced a far greater level of competition, including handing unbeaten prospect Alex White his first career defeat late last year. Benitez is another TUF Latin America prospect who earned a late submission win at UFC 180 but it was against a .500 fighter who likely wasn’t even UFC caliber. This is the only pick here that isn’t a main card fight as this one will air on UFC Fight Pass.

Pick 5 – Gilbert Melendez (22-4) -170 over Eddie Alvarez (25-4) I’m betting $100 to win $58.82

Personally I’m looking forward to this fight most of all. Hardcore fans have wanted this fight since both were champions in other organizations and it’ll finally happen before a raucous crowd in Mexico. Melendez only has one win in 3 UFC fights but the two losses were to former UFC Champions Benson Henderson and Anthony Pettis. Melendez is likely the toughest fighter that Alvarez has ever faced and I think Alvarez caves in under the pressure.

All told, I’m betting $500 with a chance to win $576.97

On with the betting game.

2015 Betting Game: Secret Psychic Spy vs Ryan Frederick

Current Standings:

Ryan Frederick: $426.92 (Picked Ortega, Noons, Browne, Magny, Matthews)

Secret Psychic Spy: $152.63 (Picked Henderson, Breese, Pyle, Wee, Andrews)

We were both winners last week as Brian Ortega snatched victory from the jaws of defeat for young Ryan and Hendo made middle-aged men, including Bryan Alvarez, around the world happy by dropping the Hendo bomb on Tim Boetsch and putting me in my rightful place at the top  of this game, where I’ll be staying.

I’ll be taking Werdum for the reasons mentioned above. Mostly cause I look at is as a free picks since Freddy’s here is almost certain to lose.

Freddy’s pick and analysis:

Eddie Alvarez +155 over Gilbert Melendez

I'm going with an underdog pick and picking Eddie Alvarez to defeat Gilbert Melendez. I expect an exciting fight and a lot of back-and-forth action. I think Alvarez has those UFC jitters out of the way, and I seem him as a slightly better fighter at this stage than Melendez is. Both are great and fun to watch, and I feel like I'm going out on a little bit of a limb here as it seems most expect Melendez to win. So, going with the upset here.

Good luck, enjoy the fights and above all else remember, Freddy’s going down!