UFC 326 Holloway vs Oliveira 2 Predictions

UFC 326 goes down on Saturday, March 7, 2026, at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, and the fight card is loaded with genuine finish potential from top to bottom. Here are my predictions for every bout on the card.

Main Event: Max Holloway vs. Charles Oliveira 2

Holloway enters as a clear favorite at around -188, with Oliveira priced as a +188 underdog. The key stylistic argument is simple: Holloway’s volume striking at 7.20 significant strikes per minute (via UFCStats) will be the dominant factor if the fight stays standing, and his takedown defense, which is historically elite, should neutralize the biggest threat in Oliveira’s arsenal.

Oliveira does hold a 5-inch reach advantage and a legitimate path to victory through his elite submission grappling. One scramble, one lapse in Holloway’s defense, and the fight is over. However, Holloway’s speed and sharp boxing should allow him to control distance and punish Oliveira’s forward pressure on the feet.

Prediction: Max Holloway wins by TKO, Round 4. Holloway’s output accumulates punishment over the championship rounds, and Oliveira’s chin, tested by Makhachev and Poirier, likely eventually buckles under the volume.

Co-Main: Caio Borralho vs. Reinier de Ridder

Borralho is a significant -235 favorite, with de Ridder at +180. Borralho averages 3.4 significant strikes per minute to de Ridder’s 2.2, and his striking defense sits at a superior 63% compared to de Ridder’s 44%. De Ridder’s path to victory runs almost entirely through his grappling, as he has 14 submission wins from 21 total victories, but Borralho’s takedown defense and scramble ability should keep this upright for significant stretches.

Prediction: Caio Borralho wins by unanimous decision. Borralho out-strikes de Ridder across three rounds, denies the takedowns often enough to earn the judges’ scorecards, and reasserts himself as a legitimate middleweight title contender.​

Main Card Predictions at a Glance

Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr.

At just 21 years old and riding a four-fight win streak, Raul Rosas Jr. is my pick here. Font is a durable veteran with genuine power, but Rosas Jr.’s finishing instinct and forward pressure represent a stylistic nightmare. Some markets imply a 76% probability of a finish inside 1.5 rounds.

Prediction: Raul Rosas Jr. wins by TKO, Round 2. His pace and aggression overwhelm Font, who has shown defensive vulnerabilities in recent outings.​

Gregory Rodrigues vs. Matheus Nicolau Ferreira

Rodrigues is the more well-rounded and dangerous fighter of the two, as in he brings legitimate finishing ability both on the feet and on the ground, while Ferreira’s primary edge lies in standup exchanges.​

Prediction: Gregory Rodrigues wins by TKO, Round 3.

Drew Dober vs. Michael Johnson

Between them, Dober and Johnson have over 30 career knockouts and both operate almost exclusively in standup exchanges. Dober snapped a three-fight skid with a recent KO win, while Johnson has defied the odds on three straight upsets. Dober’s proven power at lightweight and current momentum edge him in this one.

Prediction: Drew Dober wins by KO, Round 1 or 2.​

Prelim Predictions

Finish-Rate Outlook

This card has an exceptionally high finish probability profile. The main event, co-main, Font vs. Rosas Jr., and the Dober vs. Johnson slugfest all carry strong stoppage potential. If the card plays out close to these predictions, expect seven or more finishes across the full slate, making UFC 326 one of the more action-heavy PPVs of 2026.

Jake Skudder

Jake is an SEO-minded Football, Combat Sports, Gaming and Pro Wrestling writer, successful Editor in Chief, Sports SEO Coordinator for NationalWorld and SEO Writer for F4Wonline.com. He has more than ten years of experience covering mixed martial arts, pro wrestling, football and gaming across a number of publications, starting at SEScoops in 2012 under the name Jake Jeremy. His work has also been featured on Wrestling Headlines, Wrestlingnewsco, HotNewHipHop, The Hard Times and Sportskeeda.

Previously, he worked as the Editor in Chief of 24Wrestling, building the site profile with a view to selling the domain, which was accomplished in 2019. Jake was previously the Editor in Chief for FightFans, a combat sports and pro wrestling site that was launched in January 2021 and broke into millions of pageviews within the first two years. He previously worked for Snack Media and their GiveMeSport site, creating Evergreen and Trending content that would deliver pageviews via Google as the UFC and MMA SEO Lead. Jake managed to take an area of GiveMeSport that had zero traction on Organic and push it to audiences across the globe. Jake also has a record of long-term video and written interview content with the likes of the Professional Fighters League, ONE and Cage Warriors, working directly with the brands to promote bouts, fighters and special events.

He previously worked for the (then) biggest independent wrestling company in the UK, PROGRESS Wrestling, as PR Head and Head of Media across the social channels of the company.

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