UFC 326 Picks: Holloway vs Oliveira, Rosas Jr vs Font
UFC 326 gives MMA fans two very different matchmaking puzzles, with a five-round BMF title rematch between Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira, and a classic veteran-versus-prospect bantamweight test between Rob Font and Raul Rosas Jr. The odds favor Holloway at around -235 over Oliveira at +190, while Rosas Jr. sits near -218 against Font at +180, but the stylistic details matter more than just the raw price tags.
Holloway vs Oliveira 2 read
Holloway enters with a 27-8 record and elite volume numbers, averaging 7.20 significant strikes landed per minute with 59% striking defense and 83% takedown defense (via UFCStats).
Oliveira brings a 36-11 record with a very different profile, averaging 2.22 takedowns and 2.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes (via UFCStats), which explains why he remains dangerous even as the underdog.
The market has Holloway favored because his pace, durability, and layered boxing are built to punish opponents over time, while Oliveira’s path to victory here is far more dependent on creating chaos early or forcing grappling exchanges.
Why Holloway leads
Holloway is the more trustworthy pick here, because he can win minutes in several phases without needing to force a finish. He absorbs 4.74 significant strikes per minute, which is not low, but his own pace and shot selection have historically overwhelmed even elite names when fights move past the early danger zone and into the Championship rounds.
Oliveira’s 54% takedown accuracy and submission threat mean he is a genuine threat at all times, yet his 49% striking defense and the pressure Holloway sustains make extended striking exchanges a real problem for Do Bronx. My lean is Holloway by late stoppage or clear decision, because his style is better suited to a long, high-output title fight.
Rosas Jr. vs Font
Rosas Jr. may actually be the cleaner lock of these two featured fights, even though Holloway is the slightly bigger favorite on the board. The reason is stylistic, as Rosas averages 4.01 takedowns per 15 minutes and 1.1 submissions per 15 (via UFCStats), while Font has been taken down 11 times across his previous three fights and owns a 43% takedown defense rate in that recent sample (via UFCStats).
Font is still the sharper boxer with 5.36 significant strikes landed per minute and a 71-inch reach, so if he keeps the fight standing he can absolutely win rounds behind the jab. But over three rounds, Rosas’ wrestling pressure, top control and pace look like the most repeatable edge he has to get the win over the three rounds.
Best lock
If the question is which favorite looks safest on paper, the answer is Raul Rosas Jr. Holloway has the stronger résumé and deserves to be favored, but Oliveira’s finishing/submission danger makes that matchup inherently volatile. Rosas, by contrast, is facing an opponent whose biggest weakness lines up directly with his best weapon, which is usually what creates the closest thing to a lock in MMA.
Jake is the Head of Audience at F4WOnline, having previously worked as a Combat Sports, Gaming and Pro Wrestling writer, successful Editor in Chief and Sports Coordinator. He has more than ten years of experience covering mixed martial arts, pro wrestling, football and gaming across a number of publications, starting at SEScoops in 2012.
He previously also worked for PROGRESS Wrestling as Head of Media as well as working on the social channels of the company.