UFC 328 Chimaev vs Strickland Fight Breakdown
For me, Chimaev wins this; the only question is how, and how fast. The champion’s grappling system is arguably the most disruptive in middleweight history, and Strickland’s path to victory is so narrow it almost borders on theoretical at this point. That doesn’t make the fight uninteresting, it just shifts the interest to a more granular level, like how long can Strickland survive? Can he land anything meaningful before the fight ends?
Chimaev (15-0) makes his first title defense this weekend at UFC 328 after dismantling Dricus du Plessis at UFC 319 (50-44 across all judges after landing 37 of 47 significant strikes and controlling over 21 minutes, with 12 of 17 takedowns landed). Strickland (30-7) earned the shot via a third-round TKO of Anthony Hernandez in February, but he is a +410 underdog. However, he closed at +540 against Adesanya in 2023 and ended up winning, so you can never fully count him out (I know I already have, but still).
Chimaev vs Strickland Tale of the tape
| Metric | Chimaev | Strickland |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-0 | 30-7 |
| Significant strikes/min | 4.71 | 6.04 |
| Striking accuracy | 60.8% | 42.7% |
| Strikes absorbed/min | 2.32 | 4.13 |
| Striking defense | 56% | 60% |
| Takedown defense | 86% | 76% |
| Sub attempts/15 min | 1.4 | 0.0 |
Where Strickland could win
Strickland’s jab is one of the cleanest in the division and his 60% striking defense is a better than people remember. He has never been submitted as a pro and his cardio against Hernandez held up into the championship rounds.
But Strickland retreats in straight lines and ends up on the cage. Hernandez only attempted one takedown all night, whereas Chimaev may attempt double that in the first ten seconds in he wants to.
Where Chimaev could win
Chimaev averages just 2.32 significant strikes absorbed per minute (via UFCStats), because opponents are too busy trying to get off their backs to mount any sort of offense. Du Plessis, a more credentialed grappler than anyone Strickland has previously faced, couldn’t get up and Whittaker had his front teeth crushed by a face crank. The pace that Chimaev has in the cage is suffocating, and he has top control reminiscent of prime Khabib. This is going to be really, really tough for Strickland.
The cardio question
Cardio is the only realistic crack in the champion’s armor. Chimaev has slowed visibly in deeper waters, the Burns fight in particular saw him fading hard by round three. If Strickland survives round one, eats the damage in two, and reaches the back half with Chimaev gassed, a path opens for him to pull something remarkable off.
My pick
Chimaev by submission, round two. Round one is going to be a takedown fest if Chimaev gets his way, with mostly ground-and-pound and some very brief stand-up. Round two is where Strickland’s neck or arm becomes the problem and I can see Borz taking advantage of that.
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