UFC 328 Predictions: Chimaev vs Strickland and more
UFC 328 is pretty a loaded card this weekend (Saturday, May 9, 2026) at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. There are two championship fights set to take place, a heavyweight title eliminator, and a welterweight upset potentially on the cards. Here are my predictions for every main card bout, backed by stats, odds, and analytical breakdowns.
Odds Snapshot – UFC 328 Main Card
| Fight | Favorite | Odds (DraftKings) | Underdog | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chimaev vs. Strickland | Khamzat Chimaev | -590 | Sean Strickland | +470 |
| Van vs. Taira | Joshua Van | Slight fav | Tatsuro Taira | ~+115 |
| Volkov vs. Cortes-Acosta | Alexander Volkov | Fav | Waldo Cortes-Acosta | Dog |
| Brady vs. Buckley | Joaquin Buckley | Fav | Sean Brady | Dog |
| Green vs. Stephens | King Green | Fav | Jeremy Stephens | Dog |
Chimaev vs. Strickland – Main Event
Prediction: Chimaev via TKO, Rd. 3
Chimaev opened as a -400 favourite and is now priced at -590, but this fight is nowhere near as clean as those odds imply. Strickland has trained alongside Chimaev in the past, knows his tendencies better than any previous opponent, and publicly pledged to keep this standing (if he can) for all 25 minutes. The blueprint for Strickland here is simple, as he just needs to survive Chimaev’s explosive early bursts, drain his notorious cardio, and impose volume striking from Round 3 onwards.
What makes Borz dangerous isn’t just his elite wrestling (3x Swedish national freestyle champion, black belt in BJJ), but it’s how he manages to blend the grappling with dirty boxing (that’s what overwhelmed du Plessis at UFC 319). Strickland as a 185-pounder has a chin that has absorbed punishment from Israel Adesanya, Alex Pereira, and Dricus du Plessis, so this won’t e a walk in the park for Chimaev.
Van vs. Taira – Flyweight Title
Prediction: Van via Decision
This is the most technically nuanced fight on the card. Tatsuro Taira’s only career loss came by decision, he has never been stopped, making Van’s finishing power something of a moot point if the fight remains competitive. Taira averages 1.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes (via UFCStats) and is simply better on the mat, so Van needs to stay upright and use his superior output (SLpM 8.84) to pile up volume rounds. I expect Van to survive, but I don’t expect it to be pretty.
UFC 328 Predictions – Full Main Card
Here are my full predictions for the main card of UFC 328, with Joaquin Buckley beating Sean Brady my upset pick of the night.
| Fight | Division | Prediction | Method | Round | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland | Middleweight (Title) | Chimaev | TKO | Rd. 3 | High |
| Joshua Van vs. Tatsuro Taira | Flyweight (Title) | Van | Decision | Rd. 5 | Medium |
| Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta | Heavyweight | Volkov | TKO | Rd. 2 | High |
| Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady | Welterweight | Buckley ⚡ | TKO | Rd. 2 | Upset Pick |
| King Green vs. Jeremy Stephens | Lightweight | Green | Decision | Rd. 3 | Medium |
⚡ = Upset pick of the night
Jake is the Head of Audience at F4WOnline, having previously worked as a Combat Sports, Gaming and Pro Wrestling writer, successful Editor in Chief and Sports Coordinator. He has more than ten years of experience covering mixed martial arts, pro wrestling, football and gaming across a number of publications, starting at SEScoops in 2012.
He previously also worked for PROGRESS Wrestling as Head of Media as well as working on the social channels of the company.