By the Secret Psychic Spy (firstname.lastname@example.org)
Starting Bankroll: $1,000
Current Bankroll: $944.48
Last week (Apr 25): 5/5 Overall 46/76 (61%)
UFC 186 got us back on the winning track with a perfect week. I’m still a bit down from the starting bankroll but if you’d taken my advice (unlike what I’ve actually done) and bet equal amounts on each pick, you’d have a healthy profit with these picks. This week, it’s a Fight Pass exclusive show late Saturday night in North America and Sunday afternoon in Australia. I’ve gone up and down the card and found five fights worth wagering on.
Pick 1 – Dylan Andrews (17-6) -110 over Brad Scott (9-3) I’m betting $90 to win $81.82
Every fight on this card is either Australia or New Zealand vs The World. In a close fight (the oddsmakers have this as a coinflip), I think the hometown crowd will push the local over the edge and that’s Andrews here. He’s lost two in a row but he’s not too far removed from a six fight win streak and I think he starts a new one here.
Pick 2 – Vik Grujic (7-4) -125 over Brendan O’Reilly (5-1) I’m betting $90 to win $72
I’m going with the local again here. Grujic has been up and down in UFC and I think this is his time to be up. Grujic should be the much bigger fighter here as he’s moving down from Middleweight, while O’Reilly moves up from Lightweight. That’s very unique. O’Reilly lost his only UFC fight to Lipeng Zhang and he goes 0-2 here.
Pick 3 – Mark Hunt (10-9-1) +190 over Stipe Miocic (12-2) I’m betting $90 to win $171
I’m going with yet another local here. Hunt is from New Zealand and will be highly motivated coming off of a knockout loss in his title fight to Fabricio Werdum and fighting in front of a raucous bunch of New Zealanders making the short trip to see their local hero. Hunt only has two losses in the last 5 years and they’ve been to the top 2 heavyweight contenders. He also hasn’t lost consecutive fights since losing to Sean McCorkle in his UFC debut. Miocic won’t be able to handle Hunt’s power for five rounds.
Pick 4 – Bec Rawlings (5-4) -180 over Lisa Ellis (15-9) I’m betting $90 to win $50
Rawlings is the local here in this battle of strawweights. Ellis is one of female MMA’s true vets, having competed all over the world, including a four fight stint in Bellator. She’s lost 4 of 5 though and her best days are behind her. Rawlings will be motivated here after losing her UFC debut and should pull out the win.
Pick 5 – Brad Tavarez (13-3) -155 over Robert Whitaker (13-4) I’m betting $90 to win $58.06
This is the only one of the five fights where I’m going with a non-local. Tavarez is on the cusp of the top 10 and is 8-3 overall in UFC. He beat the ultra-tough Nate Marquardt in his last fight and he should be able to keep his run going here. Whitaker has won two in a row but he’s never faced anyone the quality of Tavarez in his career. I see Tavarez winning a tough 3 round decision here.
All told, I’m betting $450 with a chance to win $432.88
On with the betting game.
2015 Betting Game: Secret Psychic Spy vs Todd Martin
Todd Martin: $1,009.62 (Picked Letourneau, Cummins, Lapilus, Murphy, Silva, Nelson, Pennington, Shockley, Henderson, Woodley and Krylov)
Secret Psychic Spy: $1,185.92 (Picked Bisping, Miller, Pawlak, Carmouche, Santos, Cruickshank, Salazar, Strickland, Kelly, Lauzon and Aliev)
Yes you read that right….Final Standings. Todd is bowing out of the betting game as I guess a year plus of being humbled by yours truly was too much for the big man to take. So I needed a challenge and someone stepped up to the plate to take me on. Wrestling Observer.com MMA contributor and Board moderator Ryan Frederick has taken up the challenge. I can tell right away “Fred’s Spreads” may be a tougher beat than “Todd’s Odds” because I really like his pick this week. Not enough to crack my top 5 but I think he’ll get off to a good start here. Well, I’m up to the challenge and I vow to wipe the floor with Freddy as well.
I’m going with Dylan Andrews as my pick for the reasons outlined above.
Freddy’s pick and analysis:
Jake Matthews (-175) over James Vick
This is an interesting battle between two undefeated lightweight fighters. Matthews is being built as a potential star in his Australia, and he has been quite impressive in his career starting at 8-0. And he is only 20-years-old. Vick is also unbeaten at 7-0. One man is going to leave with a 1 in the loss column. I like Matthews in this one as I think he is just so talented, especially at his age, and he improves quickly. Vick is a tough test for him, but one I think he will pass
Good luck, enjoy the fights and above all else remember, Freddy’s going down!