By the Secret Psychic Spy (firstname.lastname@example.org)
Starting Bankroll: $1,500
Current Bankroll: $544.99
Last week: 2/5 Overall 51/90 (57%)
Slightly better last week but still in the red, it’s time to turn things around. Although I have to admit that if I were you the reader, I’d be tailing these picks at this point. I do think there’s a lot of value on this card even if it is mostly in the betting favorites. There are no real longshots on this card so it is worth betting on some of the surer things. Fight Night 68 marks the UFC’s return to the Cajun State and features a battle of two hard-hitting Middleweight veterans in the main event and in fact I will be picking a winner in that main event.
Pick 1 – Dan Henderson (30-13) +175 over Tim Boetsch (18-8) I’m betting $100 to win $175
A lot of people are thinking that Hendo is done after a glorious MMA career that has seen him at or near the top since his debut almost 20 years ago. His career has certainly seen better times. But his opponent hasn’t been much better of late. I think Henderson’s got one more big fight left in him and we see the return of Decision Dan on Saturday as he grinds out a win over the Barbarian.
Pick 2 – Joe Soto (15-3) -175 over Anthony Birchak (11-2) I’m betting $100 to win $57.14
You might remember Soto from his impromptu title challenge against TJ Dillashaw last summer. Or maybe you don’t because you’re one of the many MMA fans that chose to skip that show. In any event, Soto gave the champion everything he could handle for five rounds and proved he belongs. He’s a former Bellator champion as well. Birchak didn’t put up much of a fight in his UFC debut earlier this year against Ian Entwhistle and I think he goes 0-2 here.
Pick 3 – Thiago Tavares (19-5-1) over Brian Ortega (8-0) I’m betting $100 to win $58.82
Ortega looked great in his UFC debut and then we found out why as he was popped for PEDs in his post-fight drug test. Even with the use of PEDs, he’d be in tough against the veteran Tavares, who was a real contender at Lightweight and looked great in his Featherweight debut. Pretty sure this fight’s going to end in a submission and also fairly confident that Tavares will hand Ortega his first career loss.
Pick 4 – Joe Proctor (10-3) -210 over Justin Edwards (8-4) I’m betting $100 to win $47.62
Edwards has been out for well over a year and didn’t look particularly when we last saw him, including a loss in his Lightweight debut against Ramsey Nijem. Proctor is 2-1 since Edwards last fought and I think that the cage rust is going to get the better of Edwards and Proctor scores a knockout win.
Pick 5 – Dustin Poirier (17-4) -185 over Yancy Medeiros (11-2) I’m betting $100 to win $54.05
I’m most confident of all in this bet. From literally the second his last fight ended, Poirier has been looking forward to climbing into the Octagon in his home state. Poirier has looked like an absolute destroyer in his last 3 wins, with the only blemish in that time being the first round KO against Conor McGregor that helped make the decision to move up in weight classes for him. Poirier didn’t lose any power or speed in the higher class by all accounts and I think he takes this one quick and decisively and then celebrates Cajun style.
All told, I’m betting $500 with a chance to win $392.64
On with the betting game.
2015 Betting Game: Secret Psychic Spy vs Ryan Frederick
Ryan Frederick: $176.92 (Picked Noons, Browne, Magny, Matthews)
Secret Psychic Spy: $152.63 (Picked Breese, Pyle, Wee, Andrews)
I won and Freddy lost last week (get used to that one) and we’re in a virtual dead heat. I’m picking the underdog to try and take the lead here and going with my main man Hendo. I usually put Freddy’s picks over but he’s dead wrong this week and making this pretty easy for me.
Freddy’s pick and analysis:
Brian Ortega +150 over Thiago Tavares
I'm going with a bit of an upset here as Ortega is undefeated but the underdog to the UFC veteran Tavares. Tavares has looked impressive in his two fights at featherweight, but injuries have hampered him over the past few years. Yes, Ortega is coming off a drug suspension, something Tavares is familiar with, but both have been out of action since roughly the same time. Ortega is very skilled and I think he will be a solid contender who will rise up the featherweight rankings, and I like him in a close fight on Saturday night.
Good luck, enjoy the fights and above all else remember, Freddy’s going down!