UFC Fight Night Main Event Breakdown Kape vs Horiguchi (June 20th 2026)

This is the rematch nobody asked for and everybody should go out of their way to try and watch at UFC Fight Night this weekend. Manel Kape gets a second crack at the man who choked him out in RIZIN back in 2017, Kyoji Horiguchi. My read of the fight (pre weight-ins) is that Kape’s power eventually takes it in this flyweight rematch.

Manel Kape vs Kyoji Horiguchi – UFC Fight Night

Kape vs Horiguchi Tale of the tape

All stats via UFCStats

Why I’m leaning Kape

Kape walks in to this fight on easily the best stretch of his career. Three straight finishes, a first-round knockout of Brandon Royval in December, a third-round TKO of Asu Almabayev, and a body-kick stoppage of Bruno Silva before that.

The reach gap here will probably come into play across the five rounds. Kape having Five inches at 125 pounds is enormous, and he knows how to use it to his advantage. Kape throws 5.04 significant strikes a minute at 57 percent accuracy, mostly off that southpaw cross and a lead hand that he likes to keep in your face. Horiguchi has to close distance to do damage, but closing distance on a counter-puncher with one-shot power is a good way to get caught.

Where Horiguchi flips it

He out-wrestles Kape on paper, with 1.61 takedowns a fight at 40.5 percent against Kape’s leaky 30 percent defense in spots. His submission of Tagir Ulanbekov in November and a clean decision over Amir Albazi in February prove that he still has a decent gas tank and his grappling ability hasn’t diminished in any way.

If Horiguchi is able to get this fight to the ground then the advantage flips in his favor. Kape’s 0.40 takedowns per 15 minutes shows you how much he likes to keep fights standing, Horiguchi is the fighter to test that, especially as he already did choke him out in RIZIN. Having said that, Kape has an impressive 81% takedown defense, so he’s not going to be a pushover.

What could let Kape down

Kape’s chin has wobbled before, and he has sometimes drifted mentally when a fight stops going his way. Five rounds is a long time to stay disciplined and the mental factor of going back in there with someone who has already been you is genuinely tough, even if it has been nine years.

My Prediction is Kape by stoppage, rounds two or three, but if it goes beyond that I think Horiguchi wins by submission in rounds 4, 5 or he gets a decision. Yes I’m sitting on the fence here, but I’m sure you can see why, and see why it’s a much-watch fight.

Jake Skudder

Jake is the Head of Audience at F4WOnline, having previously worked as a Combat Sports, Gaming and Pro Wrestling writer, successful Editor in Chief and Sports Coordinator for NationalWorld. He has more than ten years of experience covering mixed martial arts, pro wrestling, football and gaming across a number of publications, starting at SEScoops in 2012. His work has also been featured on Wrestling Headlines, Wrestlingnewsco, HotNewHipHop, The Hard Times and Sportskeeda.

Previously, he worked as the Editor in Chief of 24Wrestling, building the site profile with a view to selling the domain, which was accomplished in 2019. Jake was previously the Editor in Chief for FightFans, a combat sports and pro wrestling site that was launched in January 2021 and broke into millions of pageviews within the first two years. He previously worked for Snack Media and their GiveMeSport site, creating Evergreen and Trending content that would deliver pageviews via Google as the UFC and MMA SEO Lead. Jake managed to take an area of GiveMeSport that had zero traction on Organic and push it to audiences across the globe. Jake also has a record of long-term video and written interview content with the likes of the Professional Fighters League, ONE and Cage Warriors, working directly with the brands to promote bouts, fighters and special events.

He previously also worked for PROGRESS Wrestling, as PR Head and Head of Media across the social channels of the company.

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