By the Secret Psychic Spy (firstname.lastname@example.org)
Starting Bankroll: $1,000
Current Bankroll: $634.48
Last week: 1/5 Overall 46/76 (58%)
Another setback last week at UFC Adelaide. With so many underdogs winning and me picking favorites, it was not a good combination. With a perfect weekend here though, we can get back in the positive column. Two big shows with Bellator 137 on Friday night and UFC on Saturday morning for most people reading this. We’ve got one pick for Friday and four for Saturday. First, from Bellator:
Pick 1 – Darrion Caldwell (6-0) -145 over Rafael Silva (22-4) I’m betting $120 to win $82.76
The Richman-Dantas fight is supposed to determine the next contender for champion Marcos Galvao. But there’s a chance the winner of this fight, if they look impressive, could get the shot and my money’s on the unbeaten Caldwell. He’s looked great so far in Bellator. Silva’s been good as well but did lose to Joe Warren last year. CEO Scott Coker identified Caldwell as someone he was hoping to build around and I think he takes that next step toward stardom with his biggest career win here.
Pick 2 – Royston Wee (4-0) -105 over Guangyou Ning (4-2-1) I’m betting $120 to win $114.29
I’m honestly shocked that Wee is the slight underdog here. He’s undefeated and Ning lost twice in the Chinese regionals before getting a spot in TUF China and winning the tourney there. Wee will keep his unbeaten record intact and take the win here, likely by decision.
Pick 3 – Dhiego Lima (10-3) -170 over Jingliang Li (9-3-1) I’m betting $120 to win $70.59
Lima has been regarded as one of the top prospects in MMA but was setback by losing the TUF tourney final last year. But he’s still just 25 and improving. Li hasn’t looked great in UFC with both of his fights going to split decision and both his opponents were below the caliber of Lima.
Pick 4 – Kajan Johnson (19-12) -135 over Lipeng Zhang (9-8-1) I’m betting $120 to win $88.89
This is more a bet against Zhang than a bet for Johnson. He’s barely above .500 with most of his fights being outside the UFC. Johnson has a lot of power and this should be a fun fight.
Pick 5 – Nolan Ticman (4-2) -235 over Zhikui Yao (1-2) I’m betting $120 to win $51.06
Yao is 1-2? Yes, that record is correct. Ticman is coming off of a loss in his UFC debut but Frankie Saenz was his opponent and is a top prospect. Yao is also coming off of a loss and I believe Ticman gets into the win column here.
All told, I’m betting $600 with a chance to win $407.59
On with the betting game.
2015 Betting Game: Secret Psychic Spy vs Ryan Frederick
Ryan Frederick: $0 (Picked Matthews)
Secret Psychic Spy: $0 (Picked Andrews)
We both lost last week so this game is still tied. I’m going with Royston Wee for the reasons outlined above.
Freddy’s pick and analysis:
Neil Magny (-130) over Hyun Gyu Lim
I'm surprised that Magny isn't a bigger favorite than he is. It's almost a pick-em, which suits me better because I got off to a rough start last week and could use a win. I expect Magny to defeat Lim, but Lim won't make it easy. Magny has six straight wins, and I think he gets his seventh straight this week and puts me ahead
Good luck, enjoy the fights and above all else remember, Freddy’s going down!