UFC Fight Night Moicano vs Duncan Predictions
UFC Fight Night 272 (UFC Vegas 115) lands on Saturday, April 4, 2026 at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas, and it’s a decent 13-fight card with genuinely compelling matchups from top to bottom. Here are expert predictions for every bout, with odds and analysis.
Full Card Predictions at a Glance
| Fight | Pick | Method | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moicano vs. Duncan | Moicano | Submission, R2 | Medium |
| Jandiroba vs. Ricci | Jandiroba | Decision | High |
| Yakhyaev vs. Ribeiro | Yakhyaev | TKO, R2 | High |
| Estevam vs. Ewing | Estevam | Submission, R1 | Medium |
| McMillen vs. Zecchini | McMillen | Decision | Medium |
| Delano vs. Ruchała | Delano | TKO | Medium |
| Costa vs. Nicoll | Costa | TKO, R1 | Very High |
| Vannata vs. Flowers | Vannata | Decision | High |
| Pat vs. Petersen | Petersen | Decision | Low |
| Pereira vs. Cowan | Pereira | Submission | Medium |
| Bekoev vs. Gore | Bekoev | TKO | Medium |
| Barbosa vs. Gatto | Gatto | Decision | Medium |
| Kamaka III vs. Hope | Kamaka III | Decision | Medium |
Main Card Breakdowns
Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan – Lightweight (5 Rounds)
Odds: Duncan -192 / Moicano +160
The market favors the Scot, and it’s understandable. Duncan is on a four-fight win streak and hasn’t tasted defeat in over two years, but Moicano’s last two losses came against Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan, arguably the two best lightweights on the planet. His experience, submission ceiling, and counter-striking IQ are being significantly undervalued here.
Duncan’s 4.82 significant strikes absorbed per minute (via UFCStats), among the highest in the division, is a glaring vulnerability against a tactician of Moicano’s caliber. Expect Moicano to time Duncan’s reckless forward pressure and drag this to the ground where his BJJ becomes a submission threat at every exchange.
Prediction: Renato Moicano by Submission
Virna Jandiroba vs. Tabatha Ricci – Women’s Strawweight
Odds: Jandiroba -108 / Ricci -108 (near pick’em)
This is essentially a coin flip at the odds level, but Jandiroba has a decisive edge: she is one of the most dangerous submission artists in women’s MMA at 22-4, holding a significant grappling advantage over Ricci’s more striking-dependent style. Both fighters land over two takedowns per 15 minutes, but Jandiroba’s submission game gives her a path to a finish that Ricci simply does not possess in kind.
Prediction: Virna Jandiroba by Decision or Late Submission
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev vs. Brendson Ribeiro – Light Heavyweight
Odds: Yakhyaev -165 / Ribeiro +130
Yakhyaev is a high-pressure wrestler from Dagestan with legitimate finishing ability, and Ribeiro, while a capable jiu-jitsu practitioner, has proven very hittable and stoppable in the UFC. Yakhyaev’s wrestling-heavy Dagestani game plan should dominate the clinch and cage work, and a TKO off ground-and-pound is a very realistic outcome here..
Prediction: Yakhyaev by TKO
Rafael Estevam vs. Ethyn Ewing – Bantamweight
Odds: Estevam -155 / Ewing +125
Estevam is a Brazilian submission specialist with serious finishing ability at 135 lbs. Ewing brings solid grappling credentials but Estevam’s jiu-jitsu is elite-tier for this level of competition. A first-round submission attempt is firmly in play from the opening bell.
Prediction: Estevam by Submission
Tommy McMillen vs. Manolo Zecchini – Featherweight
Odds: McMillen -165 / Zecchini +135
McMillen is the more established UFC-level fighter, with better striking output and ring generalship than Zecchini has demonstrated. This feels like a fight McMillen controls on the feet across three rounds, where his volume and pace wear down a more one-dimensional opponent.
Prediction: McMillen by Unanimous Decision
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