UFC Mexico 2026 Moreno vs Kavanagh Predictions

UFC Mexico City on Saturday, February 28, 2026 is headlined by former flyweight champion Brandon Moreno vs Lone’er Kavanagh at Arena CDMX. The matchup changed late, with Kavanagh stepping in after Moreno’s original opponent withdrew, which adds a major game planning wrinkle in a five round main event.

Below are my fight picks for the card as it stands right now:

Main event prediction: Brandon Moreno vs Lone’er Kavanagh

Pick: Brandon Moreno by decision

Moreno’s clearest edge is five round experience and his ability to win minutes with a mix of pocket exchanges, clinch work, and timely takedowns. Stat wise, he sits at 3.89 significant strikes landed per minute and averages 1.47 takedowns per 15 minutes (via UFCStats), which fits a pressure based approach in a long fight.

Kavanagh is a real athlete with pop and a higher pace profile on paper, but he is walking into a hostile environment and a title level pacing test. The market also reflects that gap, with Moreno listed as a clear favorite in widely posted lines this week.

Co-main prediction: Marlon Vera vs David Martinez

Pick: David Martinez by decision

This is a classic youth and momentum matchup. Vera is durable and dangerous late, but multiple previews and odds boards have Martinez as a strong favorite, and the matchup reads like a cleaner, faster striker banking rounds if he stays disciplined and avoids extended firefights.

Featured fight prediction: Daniel Zellhuber vs King Green

Pick: Daniel Zellhuber by decision

At home in Mexico City, Zellhuber should have the length and volume tools to win rounds if he keeps this contest at his usual range. Green’s best path is to force ugly exchanges and steal momentum with pressure and timing, but the more consistent round winning style belongs to Zellhuber here.

Full UFC Mexico City 2026 predictions

A quick note on the late replacement bout: Regina Tarin stepped in on extremely short notice, but she has a strong finishing profile in her pre UFC run, which is why I lean toward chaos and a stoppage rather than a slow points fight.

Jake Skudder

Jake is an SEO-minded Football, Combat Sports, Gaming and Pro Wrestling writer, successful Editor in Chief, Sports SEO Coordinator for NationalWorld and SEO Writer for F4Wonline.com. He has more than ten years of experience covering mixed martial arts, pro wrestling, football and gaming across a number of publications, starting at SEScoops in 2012 under the name Jake Jeremy. His work has also been featured on Wrestling Headlines, Wrestlingnewsco, HotNewHipHop, The Hard Times and Sportskeeda.

Previously, he worked as the Editor in Chief of 24Wrestling, building the site profile with a view to selling the domain, which was accomplished in 2019. Jake was previously the Editor in Chief for FightFans, a combat sports and pro wrestling site that was launched in January 2021 and broke into millions of pageviews within the first two years. He previously worked for Snack Media and their GiveMeSport site, creating Evergreen and Trending content that would deliver pageviews via Google as the UFC and MMA SEO Lead. Jake managed to take an area of GiveMeSport that had zero traction on Organic and push it to audiences across the globe. Jake also has a record of long-term video and written interview content with the likes of the Professional Fighters League, ONE and Cage Warriors, working directly with the brands to promote bouts, fighters and special events.

He previously worked for the (then) biggest independent wrestling company in the UK, PROGRESS Wrestling, as PR Head and Head of Media across the social channels of the company.

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