UFC Mexico 2026 Moreno vs Kavanagh Predictions
UFC Mexico City on Saturday, February 28, 2026 is headlined by former flyweight champion Brandon Moreno vs Lone’er Kavanagh at Arena CDMX. The matchup changed late, with Kavanagh stepping in after Moreno’s original opponent withdrew, which adds a major game planning wrinkle in a five round main event.
Below are my fight picks for the card as it stands right now:
Main event prediction: Brandon Moreno vs Lone’er Kavanagh
Pick: Brandon Moreno by decision
Moreno’s clearest edge is five round experience and his ability to win minutes with a mix of pocket exchanges, clinch work, and timely takedowns. Stat wise, he sits at 3.89 significant strikes landed per minute and averages 1.47 takedowns per 15 minutes (via UFCStats), which fits a pressure based approach in a long fight.
Kavanagh is a real athlete with pop and a higher pace profile on paper, but he is walking into a hostile environment and a title level pacing test. The market also reflects that gap, with Moreno listed as a clear favorite in widely posted lines this week.
Co-main prediction: Marlon Vera vs David Martinez
Pick: David Martinez by decision
This is a classic youth and momentum matchup. Vera is durable and dangerous late, but multiple previews and odds boards have Martinez as a strong favorite, and the matchup reads like a cleaner, faster striker banking rounds if he stays disciplined and avoids extended firefights.
Featured fight prediction: Daniel Zellhuber vs King Green
Pick: Daniel Zellhuber by decision
At home in Mexico City, Zellhuber should have the length and volume tools to win rounds if he keeps this contest at his usual range. Green’s best path is to force ugly exchanges and steal momentum with pressure and timing, but the more consistent round winning style belongs to Zellhuber here.
Full UFC Mexico City 2026 predictions
| Fight | Prediction | Method |
|---|---|---|
| Moreno vs Kavanagh | Moreno | Decision |
| Vera vs Martinez | Martinez | Decision |
| Chairez vs Bunes | Chairez | Decision |
| Zellhuber vs Green | Zellhuber | Decision |
| Imanol Rodriguez vs Kevin Borjas | Borjas | Decision |
| Santiago Luna vs Angel Pacheco | Luna | Decision |
| Ryan Gandra vs Jose Daniel Medina | Medina | Decision |
| Ailin Perez vs Macy Chiasson | Chiasson | Decision |
| Cristian Quinonez vs Kris Moutinho | Quinonez | TKO |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade vs Javier Reyes | Silva de Andrade | Decision |
| Ernesta Kareckaite vs Regina Tarin | Tarin | Finish |
| Damian Pinas vs Wes Schultz | Schultz | Decision |
| Erik Silva vs Francis Marshall | Marshall | Decision |
A quick note on the late replacement bout: Regina Tarin stepped in on extremely short notice, but she has a strong finishing profile in her pre UFC run, which is why I lean toward chaos and a stoppage rather than a slow points fight.
Jake is the Head of Audience at F4WOnline, having previously worked as a Combat Sports, Gaming and Pro Wrestling writer, successful Editor in Chief and Sports Coordinator. He has more than ten years of experience covering mixed martial arts, pro wrestling, football and gaming across a number of publications, starting at SEScoops in 2012.
He previously also worked for PROGRESS Wrestling as Head of Media as well as working on the social channels of the company.