UFC Fight Night Adesanya vs Pyfer Odds
UFC Fight Night 271 takes place at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, Washington on March 28, 2026, and the full card is stacked from top to bottom with compelling matchups. Here is a complete breakdown of the win probability odds for every fight on the card on fight week.
UFC Seattle Full Fight Card Odds
Main Card
| Fight | Fighter A | Odds | Fighter B | Odds | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Event | Joe Pyfer (15-3) | +115 | Israel Adesanya (24-5) | -140 | Middleweight |
| Co-Main | Maycee Barber (15-2) | -160 | Alexa Grasso (16-5-1) | +125 | Women’s Flyweight |
| Main Card | Michael Chiesa (19-7) | -500 | Niko Price (16-10) | +375 | Welterweight |
| Main Card | Lerryan Douglas (13-5) | -300 | Julian Erosa (31-13) | +240 | Featherweight |
| Main Card | Mansur Abdul-Malik (9-0-1) | -160 | Yousri Belgaroui (9-3) | +125 | Middleweight |
Prelims Card
| Fight | Fighter A | Odds | Fighter B | Odds | Division |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prelims | Navajo Stirling (8-0) | -425 | Bruno Lopes (14-2) | +355 | Light Heavyweight |
| Prelims | Chase Hooper (16-4-1) | -280 | Lance Gibson Jr. (9-2) | +210 | Lightweight |
| Prelims | Tyrell Fortune (17-3) | -120 | Marcin Tybura (27-10) | -105 | Heavyweight |
| Prelims | Casey O’Neill (10-2) | -130 | Gabriella Fernandes (11-3) | +110 | Women’s Flyweight |
| Prelims | Terrance McKinney (17-8) | -140 | Kyle Nelson (17-6-1) | +120 | Lightweight |
| Prelims | Ignacio Bahamondes (17-6) | -295 | Tofiq Musayev (22-6) | +220 | Lightweight |
| Prelims | Ricky Simon (22-7) | TBD | Adrian Yanez (17-6) | TBD | Bantamweight |
| Prelims | Alexia Thainara (13-1) | TBD | Bruna Brasil (11-6-1) | TBD | Women’s Strawweight |
Main Event – Adesanya vs. Pyfer
The market has Adesanya as a -140 favorite, implying roughly a 58% win probability. His 12cm reach advantage (2.03m vs. 1.91m), elite footwork, and experience across five-round championship bouts give him a structural edge. Pyfer at +115 is considered a live underdog thanks to his 87% career finish rate and the fact he has won three consecutive UFC fights, while Adesanya arrives on a three-fight losing streak and a 13-month layoff.
Co-Main – Grasso vs. Barber
Maycee Barber is listed as a -160 favorite over former champion Alexa Grasso at +125, a dramatic role reversal from their first meeting where Grasso dominated. Barber is riding a seven-fight win streak while Grasso comes in on a three-fight winless skid, so the odds reflect current form over historical pedigree entirely. Grasso’s crisp boxing averages 4.11 significant strikes per minute (via UFCStats), but Barber’s output of 4.61 strikes per minute combined with her 1.58 takedowns per 15 minutes (also via UFCStats) represents a genuine stylistic threat.
Biggest Favorites on the Card
The most lopsided odds belong to Michael Chiesa (-500) and Navajo Stirling (-425). Chiesa, fighting in his retirement bout on home soil in Washington state, holds a 3.05 takedowns per 15 minutes rate and faces a Niko Price who has lost five of his last six bouts. Stirling at 8-0 is undefeated and faces Bruno Lopes as the heavy favorite in their light heavyweight contest.
Most Competitive Fights
The tightest lines outside the main event belong to the Fortune vs. Tybura heavyweight bout (-120 vs. -105), which is almost a pick’em, and the O’Neill vs. Fernandes women’s flyweight contest (-130 vs. +110). Fortune vs. Tybura is noteworthy for being the only fight where both fighters are priced within a single touchdown of each other, reflecting genuine uncertainty about how their contrasting styles, Fortune’s wrestling vs. Tybura’s veteran striking, will mesh.
Notable Underlogs to Watch
Three fighters stand out as potentially undervalued based on raw stats and recent form:
- Alexa Grasso (+125): Former flyweight champion with elite boxing fundamentals, being discounted purely due to a rough recent run
- Julian Erosa (+240): Veteran finisher with 31 career wins; Douglas is a heavy favorite but Erosa’s experience and finishing ability make him dangerous
- Tofiq Musayev (+220): Accomplished 22-6 lightweight stepping in against Bahamondes, an intriguing line for a fighter with legitimate credentials
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