UFC Mexico 2026 Odds Moreno vs Kavanagh

The UFC returns to Arena CDMX in Mexico City on Saturday, Feb. 28, 2026, with former flyweight champion Brandon Moreno headlining against late-replacement Lone’er Kavanagh. The betting market has Moreno as a clear favorite, but not an overwhelming one, which tells you two things at once: Moreno’s experience is respected, and Kavanagh’s upside is being priced in despite the step up in competition.

Brandon Moreno vs Lone’er Kavanagh odds

Moreno opens fight week as a roughly two-to-one favorite in most listings, with a moneyline of Moreno (-218) and Kavanagh (+180).

That price reflects a classic matchup dynamic with an established five-round operator in Moreno versus a younger, less-tested UFC run for Kavanagh, who is taking this main event on short notice. If you want a quick “what’s most likely” read, several odds boards (and in our predictions) lean toward Moreno winning by decision as the most common method outcome in their prop menus.

UFC Mexico City main card moneyline odds

Here is how the rest of the main card is lined up as of writing:

UFC Mexico City prelims odds

The undercard also features several heavy favorites: