Mario Bautista vs Vinicius Oliveira Fight Preview and Breakdown UFC Vegas 113
UFC Vegas 113 (UFC Fight Night 266) goes down Saturday, February 7, 2026 at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas, with a five-round bantamweight main event that is basically a style lab: Mario Bautista’s pressure-volume and chaining grappling versus Vinicius Oliveira’s explosiveness and finishing upside.
Tale of the tape
| Category | Mario Bautista | Vinicius Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-3 | 23-3 |
| Height | 5’9″ | 5’9″ |
| Reach | 69.0″ | 70.5″ |
| Stance | Switch | Switch |
| Win methods | 3 KO, 6 SUB | 16 KO, 2 SUB |
Bautista vs Oliveira Fight Preview: Volume vs efficiency in the pocket
If this becomes a pure minutes-winner, Bautista is comfortable living at a high pace. He sits around 5.58 significant strikes landed per minute with 48% accuracy (via UFC Stats), but he also absorbs (4.19 SApM) because he pressures into exchanges. Oliveira’s headline is the opposite: similar output (5.28 SLpM) with cleaner defense (2.89 SApM) and 57% significant strike defense, which hints at better shot selection and fewer “taxed” minutes.
That contrast matters over five rounds. Bautista can bank rounds with activity, but if Oliveira consistently wins the damage exchanges while keeping his defensive numbers intact, judging optics will swing hard.
Key metrics snapshot
| Metric (career) | Bautista | Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Sig Str LPM | 5.58 | 5.28 |
| Sig Str Acc | 48% | 43% |
| Sig Str Absorbed | 4.19 | 2.89 |
| TD avg (per 15) | 1.48 | 1.67 |
| TD accuracy | 32.5% | 50% |
| TD defense | 54% | 80% |
| Sub avg (per 15) | 0.80 | 0.24 |
Chaining grappling vs anti-wrestling structure
Bautista’s best argument is not one takedown, it is what happens after the first contact: re-shots, rides, back takes, and submission layers (again 0.80 sub attempts per 15). Oliveira’s counter is strong on paper: 80% takedown defense plus enough offensive wrestling of his own (1.67 TD avg with 50% accuracy) to discourage predictable any entries from his UFC Vegas 113 opponent.
The critical micro-battle is whether Bautista can force extended grappling sequences, not just score a takedown. If Oliveira pops up quickly and resets at range, Bautista’s gas tank gets tested by repeated failed chains across the potential 5 rounds at UFC Vegas 113.
Finishing equity and how this ends
Oliveira carries genuine knockout threat for a bantamweight: 16 of 23 wins by KO/TKO is extreme finishing concentration, and it pairs well with his lower absorbed volume. Bautista’s finishing is more slow burn, because he wins exchanges, builds to positions, then hunts the neck or back, which is reflected in 6 submission wins.
Matchup lean (technical): Bautista’s clearest path to victory at UFC Vegas 113 is a pace-heavy first 10 minutes that forces clinches and scrambles, then stacking control time as Oliveira slows. Oliveira’s clearest path is denying extended grappling and making Bautista pay for every pocket entry with cleaner, harder shots. If Oliveira’s 80% takedown defense holds up across 25 minutes, the damage-based minutes could end up favoring him.
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